Criora

Climate risk in Santa Cruz de la Sierra

Santa Cruz Department, Bolivia

Main risks in Santa Cruz de la Sierra

On earthquakes, Santa Cruz de la Sierra ranks above at least 72% of the world's 626 large cities.

Earthquakes
strong shaking on firm ground (0.15 g), more on soft ground [1]
Higher than 72% of the world's large cities; 3rd of 3 large cities in Bolivia.
For comparison: Karachi 0.14 g, Faridabad 0.14 g, Dhaka 0.14 g.
g is the pull of gravity: from about 0.1 g, shaking is strong and can cause light damage to buildings.
0.15 g Natural Earth

Earthquake shaking on firm ground, 10% chance in 50 years

0 0.51 g
See the earthquake hazard around Santa Cruz de la Sierra on the live map 

This week in Santa Cruz de la Sierra

This week's forecast risk around the city, by day and by hour, and the hazard events near it now. [2] [3]

Open the city on the map

The Earth right now

The Earth's pulse reads the whole world, not this city, so it is the same on every city's page.

Earth's pulse, from 0 to 100. It rises with the number of people in the path of disasters now under way; 90 matches the 2004 tsunami.

Open the live map

Where else Santa Cruz de la Sierra stands out

1%

Land burned in an average year [4]

Higher than 84% of the world's large cities; 1st of 3 large cities in Bolivia.

For comparison: Xi'an 4%, Johannesburg 2%.

236 nights

Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C [5]

Higher than 80% of the world's large cities; 1st of 3 large cities in Bolivia.

For comparison: Bengaluru 233 nights, Hanoi 228 nights, Rio de Janeiro 226 nights.

Santa Cruz de la Sierra's climate in the 2050s

2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, if emissions level off [6] [7]

By the 2050s, Santa Cruz de la Sierra is projected to have a climate that no large city has today, not even Santa Cruz de la Sierra itself. Of the others, Havana (Cuba) comes closest, and it is still far off.

+1.6 °C

Mean temperature over the year

+2.2 °C

Average daily high, warmest month

+1.3 °C

Average nightly low, coldest month

-5%

Precipitation over the year

If emissions keep rising, it will differ even more from the climate of every large city today.

Climates are compared on seasonal temperature and rainfall alone, each difference weighed against the city's usual swings from year to year (the method of Mahony et al. 2017); heat waves, the heat of city streets and the rising sea are left out. 2 of the 3 estimates from the climate models, the middle one and the two ends of their range, point to Havana. [8]

Everything else measured

From the highest among the world's 626 large cities to the lowest.

Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C [5] 15 days higher than 62% of large cities Rank in Bolivia (1 = highest): 1 of 3
Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 [5] 12 days higher than 61% of large cities Rank in Bolivia (1 = highest): 1 of 3
Hottest day of 2025 [5] 37.6 °C higher than 60% of large cities Rank in Bolivia (1 = highest): 1 of 3
Warming by 2050, if emissions level off [7] +1.6 °C higher than 26% of large cities Rank in Bolivia (1 = highest): 3 of 3
Drought risk [9] Low-Medium the same grade as 11% of large cities; higher than 1%, lower than 88%
Water stress [9] Low: under 10% of the available water drawn lowest grade, like 30% of large cities
River flood depth, 100-year event [10] Dry at the centre; other districts can flood like 85% of large cities
Share of land sinking over 1 cm a year, within 15 km [11] 0% like 80% of large cities
Tropical cyclone wind, once in 100 years [12] No hurricane or typhoon reaches here
Share of the land around the centre (a 10 km square) that a 100-year flood from the sea puts under 0.5 m of water or more [10] Far from the sea: no coastal flooding
  • Flood depth is given for one 1 km square at the city centre, in today's climate.
  • Land subsidence comes from a model of satellite radar measurements from 2013 to 2019 in 2 km squares, read over all the land within 15 km of the centre rather than at one point.
  • Water stress is the share of the available water drawn every year. Drought risk is how often droughts come, against the area's own usual rain, and how many people and how much farmland they would reach. Both are graded on WRI's own scale.
  • If emissions level off: the IPCC's SSP2-4.5 scenario.
  • Water stress and drought risk have no rank in the country: they are steps of a scale, and many cities share one.
  • Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here.

The nearest large cities

Distance from centre to centre.

Large cities in Bolivia

Climate risk in Bolivia 

Sources

  1. GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map: earthquake shaking
  2. Environment and Climate Change Canada: Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS): the week's forecast map
  3. NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS): wildfire near the city now
  4. Global Biomass Burning at 500 m (GFED500): burned land
  5. ERA5 Single Levels Daily Statistics: nights, hot days, heavy rain, hottest day
  6. TerraClimate: the 2050s comparison
  7. NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6): the 2050s comparison, warming
  8. Mahony, Cannon, Wang and Aitken (2017). A closer look at novel climates: new methods and insights at continental to landscape scales. Global Change Biology 23, 3934-3955: how climates are compared
  9. Aqueduct 4.0 Water Risk Framework: drought risk, water stress
  10. Aqueduct Floods Hazard Maps: river flood depth, coastal floods
  11. Global Land Subsidence Mapping Reveals Widespread Loss of Aquifer Storage Capacity: sinking land
  12. IRIS: the Imperial College Storm Model dataset: tropical cyclone wind

About these sources 

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Cite this page

In a line

Source: Criora (criora.com), based on GSHAP, ECCC, NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), GFED500, ECMWF, TerraClimate, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, HydroShare, IRIS

APA

Criora. (2026). Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 4, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/BOL/santa-cruz-de-la-sierra

BibTeX

@misc{criora_atlas_BOL_santa_cruz_de_la_sierra_2026,
  author = {{Criora}},
  title = {Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia: climate risk profile},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://criora.com/atlas/BOL/santa-cruz-de-la-sierra},
  urldate = {2026-11-04}
}

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