Climate risk in Guayaquil
Guayas, Ecuador · 2.5M people in the urban area
What threatens Guayaquil most
- Earthquake
- High GSHAP
- Drought
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
- Water stress
- Low-Medium WRI Aqueduct
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Ecuador
Guayaquil had 27 days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025.
Quito: 33 days.
Guayaquil's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Guayaquil's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is Kinshasa (Dem. Rep. Congo).
+1.1°C
Mean temperature over the year
+1.1°C
Highest in the warmest month
+0.9°C
Lowest in the coldest month
+7%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Guayaquil would stay nearest its own climate today.
Its own climate today is 1.0 σ away. How close the match is: 3.7 σ to the climate of Kinshasa today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Guayaquil stands out
363 days
Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C
Quito: 0 days.
Higher than in 92% of the world's 630 large cities
2.73 m/s²
Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years
Quito: 4 m/s².
Higher than in 87% of the world's 627 large cities
Hazards at Guayaquil
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Guayaquil | Among large cities | In Ecuador |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 0 days | ||
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 363 days | Among large cities: above 92% | |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 32.9°C | Among large cities: above 21% | |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +1.4°C | Among large cities: above 15% | |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 27 days | Among large cities: above 94% | |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Sea level rise by 2050, moderate emissions | 170 mm | Among large cities: above 7% | |
| Water stress | Low-Medium (10-20%) | Among large cities: above 30% | |
| Drought risk | Medium-High | Among large cities: above 13% | |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 2.73 m/s² | Among large cities: above 87% | |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Guayaquil on the live map
See the tropical nights around Guayaquil on the live map
363 days © OpenStreetMap Large cities in Ecuador
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Guayaquil, Ecuador: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/ECU/guayaquil BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_ECU_guayaquil_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Guayaquil, Ecuador: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/ECU/guayaquil},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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