Climate risk in Mombasa
Mombasa County, Kenya · 1.2M people in the urban area
What threatens Mombasa most
- Drought
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
- Water stress
- Low-Medium WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- Low GSHAP
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Kenya
Mombasa had 365 days in 2025 when the night never cooled below 20 °C.
Nairobi: 0 days.
The highest of the 3 large cities in Kenya.
Mombasa's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Mombasa's climate comes closest to that of Accra (Ghana) today, though no large city matches it well.
Such a climate exists today, though not in any large city. Ghana: the place on the map
+1.1°C
Mean temperature over the year
+1°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.1°C
Lowest in the coldest month
0%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, the nearest is Accra (Ghana), and only in part.
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How close the match is: 3.0 σ to the climate of Accra today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Hazards at Mombasa
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Mombasa | Among large cities | In Kenya |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 0 days | ||
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 365 days | Among large cities: above 93% | In Kenya: 1 of 3 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 32.9°C | Among large cities: above 21% | In Kenya: 2 of 3 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +1.4°C | Among large cities: above 14% | In Kenya: 3 of 3 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 8 days | Among large cities: above 45% | In Kenya: 2 of 3 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Sea level rise by 2050, moderate emissions | 226 mm | Among large cities: above 69% | |
| Water stress | Low-Medium (10-20%) | Among large cities: above 30% | In Kenya: 1 of 3 |
| Drought risk | Medium-High | Among large cities: above 13% | In Kenya: 2 of 3 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 0.11 m/s² | Among large cities: above 10% | In Kenya: 3 of 3 |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Mombasa on the live map
See the hottest days around Mombasa on the live map
32.9°C © OpenStreetMap Large cities near Mombasa
- Dar es Salaam · Tanzania
- Nairobi · Kenya
- Kakamega · Kenya
- Mwanza · Tanzania
Large cities in Kenya
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Mombasa, Kenya: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/KEN/mombasa BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_KEN_mombasa_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Mombasa, Kenya: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/KEN/mombasa},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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