Climate risk in Surabaya
East Java, Indonesia · 2.8M people in the urban area
What threatens Surabaya most
- Drought
- High WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- Moderate GSHAP
- Water stress
- Low-Medium WRI Aqueduct
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Indonesia
Surabaya had 365 days in 2025 when the night never cooled below 20 °C.
Bandung: 101 days.
Surabaya's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Surabaya's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is Bangkok (Thailand).
+1.2°C
Mean temperature over the year
+1.2°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.1°C
Lowest in the coldest month
-1%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Surabaya would stay nearest its own climate today.
Its own climate today is 5.4 σ away. How close the match is: 9.5 σ to the climate of Bangkok today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Surabaya stands out
20 days
Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025
Jakarta: 24 days.
Higher than in 85% of the world's 630 large cities
1.88 m/s²
Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years
Jakarta: 2.73 m/s².
Higher than in 77% of the world's 627 large cities
Hazards at Surabaya
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Surabaya | Among large cities | In Indonesia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 0 days | ||
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 365 days | Among large cities: above 93% | In Indonesia: 1 of 11 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 34.7°C | Among large cities: above 35% | In Indonesia: 5 of 11 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +1.6°C | Among large cities: above 23% | In Indonesia: 6 of 11 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 20 days | Among large cities: above 85% | In Indonesia: 11 of 11 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Sea level rise by 2050, moderate emissions | 197 mm | Among large cities: above 33% | In Indonesia: 3 of 9 |
| Water stress | Low-Medium (10-20%) | Among large cities: above 30% | In Indonesia: 7 of 11 |
| Drought risk | High | Among large cities: above 50% | In Indonesia: 1 of 11 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 1.88 m/s² | Among large cities: above 77% | In Indonesia: 7 of 11 |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Surabaya on the live map
See the heavy rain days around Surabaya on the live map
20 days © OpenStreetMap Cite or embed
Cite this page
In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Surabaya, Indonesia: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/IDN/surabaya BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_IDN_surabaya_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Surabaya, Indonesia: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/IDN/surabaya},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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