Criora

Sweden

Region Europe Subregion Northern Europe Income High income: OECD ISO SWE

Sweden runs low across the board; strong nature keeps overall risk contained.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Sweden, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Low
31 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Medium
    43 / 100
  2. Nature
    Very low
    19 / 100
    ▲ + 0.0 5y
  3. Social
    Low
    21 / 100
  4. Governance
    Medium
    40 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    Low
    29 / 100
    ▲ + 1.2 5y
Climate futures

Sweden: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Sweden is projected to warm +4.0 °C, with annual rainfall changing +58 mm.

Temperature

+4.0 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+3.2 °C → +4.0 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+2.4 °C → +3.2 °C

Hottest month +3.1 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+58 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+47 mm → +58 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+39 mm → +49 mm

Driest month +4 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Sweden: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.04 m → +0.30 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.04 m → +0.12 m

Water stress

3.4%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
3.4% → 3.4%
Current path SSP3-7.0
2.9% → 3.4%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 2.9% today.

River flooding

1.3%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
1.4% → 1.3%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
1.2% → 1.4%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 2.1% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Sweden.

Where exactly?

Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Sweden most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
High
6.3 / 10
Peers

Sweden in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Northern Europe
#5 of 10median 32
  1. 1DenmarkLow 25
  2. 2IcelandLow 27
  3. 3NorwayLow 29
  4. 4FinlandLow 30
  5. 5SwedenLow 31
  6. 6United KingdomLow 33
  7. 7IrelandLow 35
  8. 8EstoniaLow 35
  9. 9LithuaniaLow 35
  10. 10LatviaLow 38
region
Europe
#7 of 43median 38
  1. 3LiechtensteinLow 28
  2. 4NorwayLow 29
  3. 5LuxembourgLow 30
  4. 6FinlandLow 30
  5. 7SwedenLow 31
  6. 8San MarinoLow 32
  7. 9SwitzerlandLow 32
  8. 10United KingdomLow 33
  9. 11MonacoLow 33
  10. 12IrelandLow 35
income group
High income: OECD
#6 of 31median 37
  1. 2IcelandLow 27
  2. 3NorwayLow 29
  3. 4LuxembourgLow 30
  4. 5FinlandLow 30
  5. 6SwedenLow 31
  6. 7New ZealandLow 32
  7. 8SwitzerlandLow 32
  8. 9United KingdomLow 33
  9. 10IrelandLow 35
  10. 11IsraelLow 35

Put two countries head to head

Compare Sweden against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare ↗ Score a site here
Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Sweden?
Sweden runs low across the board; strong nature keeps overall risk contained. Its overall risk score is 31 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Sweden's risk?
Sweden's highest pressures are climate (43, medium) and governance (40). Its strongest area is nature (19).
How might Sweden's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 34% of Sweden's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 71 to 73 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Sweden warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Sweden is on track to warm by +4.0 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +58 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.2 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Sweden's coast?
Coastal sea level along Sweden is projected to rise by +0.30 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.12 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Sweden?
The share of Sweden under high water stress is projected to move from 2.9% today to 3.4% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Sweden?
The share of Sweden exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 2.1% today to 1.3% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Sweden's risk data last updated?
Updated June 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.