What drives United Arab Emirates's risk?

United Arab Emirates's highest pressures are governance (53, medium) and adaptation (41). Its strongest area is social (15).

How might United Arab Emirates's climate change by 2080?

United Arab Emirates's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 66 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will United Arab Emirates warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), United Arab Emirates is on track to warm by +4.2 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +3 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.7 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along United Arab Emirates's coast?

Coastal sea level along United Arab Emirates is projected to rise by +0.75 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.50 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in United Arab Emirates?

The share of United Arab Emirates under high water stress is projected to move from 69% today to 69% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in United Arab Emirates?

The share of United Arab Emirates exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was United Arab Emirates's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

United Arab Emirates Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Asia
Subregion: Western Asia
Income: High income, non-OECD
ISO: ARE

United Arab Emirates: low across the board; strong social keeps overall risk contained.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is United Arab Emirates, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Low 36 / 100

31 Climate Low
40 Nature -1.7 Low
15 Social Very low
53 Governance Medium
41 Adaptation -1.2 Medium

Which hazards threaten United Arab Emirates most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

0.6FloodVery low
6.7DRR capacityHigh

United Arab Emirates in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Western Asia

#4 of 18 · median 43

Asia

#5 of 48 · median 47

High income: nonOECD

#9 of 20 · median 36

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

United Arab Emirates: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, United Arab Emirates is projected to warm +4.2 °C, with annual rainfall changing +3 mm.

+4.2 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +2.9 °C → +4.2 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +2.3 °C → +2.7 °C

Hottest month +4.4 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+3 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +3 mm → +3 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +1 mm → 0 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

69%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 69% → 69%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 69% → 69%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 69% today.

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0.1% → 0%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 0.1% → 0.1%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0% today.

Sea level

United Arab Emirates: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 7 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.23 m → +0.75 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.19 m → +0.50 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Land Surface Temperature	44.3 deg C change	2021	100.0	+35.3	+32.5
Renewable Energy Share	1.00 % of total energy	2021	99.0	+23.6	+8.4
Renewable Electricity Share	4.20 % of total	2021	95.8	+20.7	+12.8
Cooling Degree Days	6810 degree days	2020	93.2	+41.4	+42.2
Fossil Fuel Consumption	92.7 % of total	2022	92.4	+19.7	+5.6
Coastal Protection Needed	93.3 % coast	2020	91.2	+6.9	+0.9
Heat Index	107 index	2020	78.7	+78.7	+76.6
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	20.0 metric tons	2020	63.8	+56.1	+52.9
Energy Imports	-171 % of energy use	2022	55.1	-16.0	-15.6
Energy Use Per Capita	8336 kg oil eq per capita	2022	49.8	+41.5	+40.9
PM2.5 Air Pollution	36.3 ug/m3	2020	39.2	+20.0	+13.0
Energy Intensity	5.48 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2021	24.9	+8.3	+6.4
Flood Risk	0.60 0-10	2026	6.0	-46.0	-59.5
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.19 kt CO2e per capita	2020	4.5	-2.5	-1.6
Heating Degree Days	84.8 degree days	2020	0.6	-0.8	-7.0
Coal Electricity Share	0.18 % of total	2022	0.2	-16.5	-31.7
Access to Clean Fuels	100 % population	2022	0.0	-10.3	-8.7

		Year		vs world	vs region
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+92.5	+72.5
Population Below 5m	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+85.3	+82.2
Dam Capacity	1.00 0-1	2023	99.8	+6.5	+6.2
Freshwater Withdrawal	1533 % of internal resources	2021	98.3	+48.0	+22.7
Forest Area	4.47 % of land	2022	95.3	+29.0	+10.4
Agricultural Capacity	0.91 0-1	2023	91.0	-0.8	+2.5
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.88 0-1	2023	88.3	+12.0	+8.1
Urban Concentration	0.87 0-1	2023	86.8	+29.4	+31.4
Protected Areas	15.9 % of land	2023	84.1	-4.8	-9.1
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.76 0-1	2023	75.8	-10.7	-2.0
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.70 0-1	2023	70.2	-14.0	-11.6
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Natural Capital Dependency	0.65 0-1	2023	65.2	+43.4	+39.5
Tsunami Risk	6.00 0-10	2026	60.0	+49.0	+35.0
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.55 0-1	2023	55.3	-2.3	0.0
Projected Warm Period Change	0.53 0-1	2023	53.4	-14.4	-11.9
Food Production Index	125 index	2022	49.5	-17.6	-10.5
Projected Hydropower Change	0.44 0-1	2023	43.7	0.0	0.0
Protected Biome Areas	0.41 0-1	2023	41.2	+0.2	-3.7
Water Stress	1533 %	2021	39.8	+39.5	+38.4
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.38 0-1	2023	37.7	+24.2	+21.7
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.31 0-1	2023	30.8	-6.4	-5.9
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.29 0-1	2023	28.6	+10.3	+16.5
Projected Population Change	0.28 0-1	2023	28.4	+6.1	+4.8
Disaster Preparedness	0.25 0-1	2023	25.0	-5.0	0.0
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.23 0-1	2023	23.1	-39.0	-37.9
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.21 0-1	2023	21.2	-9.1	0.0
Rural Population	0.13 0-1	2023	13.2	-29.4	-31.4
Natural Resource Depletion	3.41 % of GNI	2020	12.5	+10.1	+8.4
Age Dependency Ratio	0.08 0-1	2023	8.3	-44.5	-37.3
Food Import Dependency	0.07 0-1	2023	7.3	-14.4	-12.1
Agricultural Land	5.51 % of land	2022	6.0	-41.3	-34.3
Threatened Mammal Species	8.00 count	2018	4.2	-1.0	-2.6
Agriculture GDP Share	0.70 % of GDP	2023	1.9	-17.0	-20.3
Ecological Footprint	0.02 0-1	2023	1.7	-20.9	-23.2
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.02 0-1	2023	1.6	-37.6	-31.6
Earthquake Risk	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-34.0	-66.5
Tree Cover Loss	0.00 hectares	2021	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Forest Depletion	0.00 % of GNI	2020	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-39.6	-27.6
Projected Groundwater Change	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-26.2	-28.6
Water Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-6.9	-7.0
Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-6.8	-3.9
Paved Roads	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-55.0	-26.8
Energy Import Dependency	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-25.7	-20.7
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Hospital Beds	1.98 per 1,000	2021	86.9	+3.0	+1.6
Overweight Adults	71.3 % adults	2022	76.0	+20.0	+21.3
Net Migration	300004 persons	2023	65.2	+10.2	+10.3
Education Expenditure	14.8 % of govt	2021	63.1	-6.9	-6.9
School Gender Parity	1.01 ratio	2020	54.3	-2.6	-2.1
GDP Growth	3.62 % annual	2023	47.7	-1.2	-0.1
Gender Labor Ratio	59.8 ratio F/M	2023	46.1	+19.1	+6.3
Primary School Enrollment	106 % gross	2023	35.5	-6.5	-5.5
Uprooted People	3.00 0-10	2026	30.0	-29.0	-23.5
ESG Performance Score	2.22 0-100	2018	28.9	+3.9	+2.5
Income Share Bottom 20%	8.20 %	2018	28.2	-15.5	-16.2
Food Security	1.60 0-10	2026	16.0	-2.0	-2.0
Labor Participation	78.6 % (15+)	2023	15.6	-14.5	-15.6
Life Expectancy	82.9 years	2023	10.9	-28.6	-22.3
Communicable Disease Deaths	7.09 %	2019	9.1	-7.0	-5.1
Fertility Rate	1.20 births per woman	2023	8.9	-14.4	-14.3
Gini Coefficient	26.4 0-100	2018	6.1	-30.1	-32.8
Unemployment Rate	2.15 %	2023	5.8	-8.4	-5.8
Children Under 5	0.40 0-10	2026	4.0	-7.0	-9.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	5.00 per 1,000	2023	3.2	-9.0	-7.3
Adult Literacy Rate	98.0 %	2022	2.8	-18.5	-5.5
Sanitation Access	98.5 % population	2022	1.6	-38.4	-32.8
Aid Dependency	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-24.0	-20.0
Health Conditions	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-7.0	-3.0
Population Density	142 people/km2	2022	0.7	+0.2	+0.1
Undernourishment	2.70 % population	2022	0.4	-5.4	-5.2
Aging Population	1.70 % population	2023	0.4	-16.0	-13.4
Development and Deprivation	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-30.0	-25.5
Recent Shocks	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-1.0	-3.0
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0
Internet Users	100 % population	2023	0.0	-20.9	-16.4

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	69.0 count	2021	100.0	0.0	0.0
Scientific Articles	6402 count	2022	99.3	-0.6	-0.5
R&D Expenditure	1.49 % of GDP	2021	74.7	-12.1	-19.8
Voice and Accountability	-1.09 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	71.9	+23.1	+6.4
Disaster Risk Reduction	6.70 0-10	2026	67.0	+25.5	+31.0
Legal Rights Strength	6.00 0-12	2019	50.0	0.0	0.0
Political Stability	0.68 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	36.4	-13.4	-19.2
Rule of Law	0.88 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	32.4	-20.6	-20.7
Regulatory Quality	1.04 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	29.2	-23.6	-25.4
INFORM Governance Index	2.90 0-10	2026	29.0	-27.0	-28.5
Control of Corruption	1.07 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	28.5	-27.1	-29.8
Women in Parliament	50.0 % seats	2023	18.4	-39.8	-50.8
Physical Infrastructure	1.80 0-10	2026	18.0	-12.0	-11.5
Government Effectiveness	1.60 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	17.9	-33.8	-32.8
Healthcare Access	0.80 0-10	2026	8.0	-29.0	-25.0
Communication Infrastructure	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-19.0	-13.5

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.03 0-1	2023	96.6	+1.9	+2.3
Education (Readiness)	0.37 0-1	2023	63.3	-9.8	-9.6
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.67 0-1	2023	32.8	-31.5	-35.0
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.68 0-1	2023	31.8	-20.2	-20.0
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.69 0-1	2023	31.4	-11.7	-16.9
ICT Infrastructure	0.69 0-1	2023	31.4	-16.3	-14.1
Doing Business Score	0.71 0-1	2023	28.9	-29.5	-22.2
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.71 0-1	2023	28.9	-23.7	-24.6

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

Score a site in United Arab Emirates →

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside United Arab Emirates.

Where exactly?

Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.

orpinpoint it on the map →

Map of United Arab Emirates — Pinpoint on the map Open the map

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is United Arab Emirates?
United Arab Emirates: low across the board; strong social keeps overall risk contained. Its overall risk score is 36 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives United Arab Emirates's risk?
United Arab Emirates's highest pressures are governance (53, medium) and adaptation (41). Its strongest area is social (15).
How might United Arab Emirates's climate change by 2080?
United Arab Emirates's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 66 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will United Arab Emirates warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), United Arab Emirates is on track to warm by +4.2 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +3 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.7 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along United Arab Emirates's coast?
Coastal sea level along United Arab Emirates is projected to rise by +0.75 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.50 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in United Arab Emirates?
The share of United Arab Emirates under high water stress is projected to move from 69% today to 69% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in United Arab Emirates?
The share of United Arab Emirates exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was United Arab Emirates's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.