Criora

United Arab Emirates

Region Asia Subregion Western Asia Income High income: nonOECD ISO ARE

United Arab Emirates runs low across the board; strong social keeps overall risk contained.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is United Arab Emirates, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Low
36 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Low
    31 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    40 / 100
    ▼ -1.7 5y
  3. Social
    Very low
    15 / 100
  4. Governance
    Medium
    53 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    Medium
    41 / 100
    ▼ -1.2 5y
Climate futures

United Arab Emirates: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, United Arab Emirates is projected to warm +4.2 °C, with annual rainfall changing +3 mm.

Temperature

+4.2 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+2.9 °C → +4.2 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+2.3 °C → +2.7 °C

Hottest month +4.4 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+3 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+3 mm → +3 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1 mm → 0 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

United Arab Emirates: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 7 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.23 m → +0.75 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.19 m → +0.50 m

Water stress

69%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
69% → 69%
Current path SSP3-7.0
69% → 69%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 69% today.

River flooding

0%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0.1% → 0%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
0.1% → 0.1%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside United Arab Emirates.

Where exactly?

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten United Arab Emirates most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Very low
0.6 / 10
DRR capacity
High
6.7 / 10
Peers

United Arab Emirates in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Western Asia
#4 of 18median 43
  1. 1PalestineLow 32
  2. 2IsraelLow 35
  3. 3QatarLow 35
  4. 4United Arab EmiratesLow 36
  5. 5BahrainLow 36
  6. 6CyprusLow 37
  7. 7Saudi ArabiaMedium 41
  8. 8OmanMedium 41
  9. 9GeorgiaMedium 42
  10. 10JordanMedium 44
region
Asia
#5 of 48median 47
  1. 1SingaporeLow 24
  2. 2PalestineLow 32
  3. 3IsraelLow 35
  4. 4QatarLow 35
  5. 5United Arab EmiratesLow 36
  6. 6BahrainLow 36
  7. 7South KoreaLow 37
  8. 8CyprusLow 37
  9. 9BruneiLow 39
  10. 10MaldivesMedium 41
income group
High income: nonOECD
#9 of 20median 36
  1. 5BarbadosLow 35
  2. 6St. Kitts and NevisLow 35
  3. 7BahamasLow 35
  4. 8QatarLow 35
  5. 9United Arab EmiratesLow 36
  6. 10BahrainLow 36
  7. 11MaltaLow 36
  8. 12AndorraLow 37
  9. 13CyprusLow 37
  10. 14BruneiLow 39

Put two countries head to head

Compare United Arab Emirates against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is United Arab Emirates?
United Arab Emirates runs low across the board; strong social keeps overall risk contained. Its overall risk score is 36 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives United Arab Emirates's risk?
United Arab Emirates's highest pressures are governance (53, medium) and adaptation (41). Its strongest area is social (15).
How might United Arab Emirates's climate change by 2080?
United Arab Emirates's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 66 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will United Arab Emirates warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), United Arab Emirates is on track to warm by +4.2 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +3 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.7 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along United Arab Emirates's coast?
Coastal sea level along United Arab Emirates is projected to rise by +0.75 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.50 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in United Arab Emirates?
The share of United Arab Emirates under high water stress is projected to move from 69% today to 69% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in United Arab Emirates?
The share of United Arab Emirates exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was United Arab Emirates's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.