Climate risk in Dubai
Dubai, United Arab Emirates · 1.4M people in the urban area
What threatens Dubai most
- Water stress
- Extremely High WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- High GSHAP
- River flood
- 0.03 m in a 100-year flood
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of United Arab Emirates
Dubai had 165 days over 35 °C in 2025.
Sharjah city: 190 days.
Dubai's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Dubai's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is Doha (Qatar).
+1.6°C
Mean temperature over the year
+1.6°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.4°C
Lowest in the coldest month
+13%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Dubai would stay nearest its own climate today.
Its own climate today is 3.4 σ away. How close the match is: 7.9 σ to the climate of Doha today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Dubai stands out
42.8°C
Hottest day of 2025
Sharjah city: 45.5°C.
Higher than in 91% of the world's 630 large cities
3.26 m/s²
Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years
Sharjah city: 3.49 m/s².
Higher than in 91% of the world's 627 large cities
Hazards at Dubai
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Dubai | Among large cities | In United Arab Emirates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 165 days | Among large cities: above 97% | |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 273 days | Among large cities: above 84% | |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 42.8°C | Among large cities: above 91% | |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +2°C | Among large cities: above 48% | |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 1 day | Among large cities: above 7% | |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | 0.03 m | Among large cities: above 85% | |
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Sea level rise by 2050, moderate emissions | 187 mm | Among large cities: above 17% | |
| Water stress | Extremely High (>80%) | Among large cities: above 70% | |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 3.26 m/s² | Among large cities: above 91% | |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Dubai on the live map
See the hottest days around Dubai on the live map
42.8°C © OpenStreetMap Large cities near Dubai
- Sharjah city · United Arab Emirates
- Doha · Qatar
- Dammam · Saudi Arabia
- Shiraz · Iran
Large cities in United Arab Emirates
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Dubai, United Arab Emirates: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/ARE/dubai BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_ARE_dubai_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Dubai, United Arab Emirates: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/ARE/dubai},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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