Criora

Climate risk in Havana

Cuba

Main risks in Havana

On tropical cyclones, Havana ranks above at least 92% of the world's 626 large cities.

Tropical cyclones
once in 100 years, winds of about 150 km/h (category 1) [1]
Higher than 92% of the world's large cities.
For comparison: Houston 149 km/h, Mumbai 142 km/h, Shanghai 141 km/h.

This week in Havana

This week's forecast risk around the city, by day and by hour, and the hazard events near it now. [2] [3] [4]

Open the city on the map

The Earth right now

The Earth's pulse reads the whole world, not this city, so it is the same on every city's page.

Earth's pulse, from 0 to 100. It rises with the number of people in the path of disasters now under way; 90 matches the 2004 tsunami.

Open the live map

Where else Havana stands out

29 cm

Sea level rise by 2050 if emissions level off, counted from the 1995-2014 average; 21 cm of it comes after 2020 [5]

Higher than 94% of the world's large coastal cities.

For comparison: Miami 28 cm, Barcelona 24 cm, Luanda 24 cm.

330 nights

Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C [6]

Higher than 90% of the world's large cities.

For comparison: Bangkok 337 nights, Mumbai 319 nights, Yangon 315 nights.

Havana's climate in the 2050s

2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, if emissions level off [7] [8]

By the 2050s, Havana is projected to have a climate that no large city has today, not even Havana itself. Of the others, Mombasa (Kenya) comes closest, and it is still far off.

+1.2 °C

Mean temperature over the year

+1.4 °C

Average daily high, warmest month

+1.1 °C

Average nightly low, coldest month

-3%

Precipitation over the year

If emissions keep rising, it will differ even more from the climate of every large city today.

Climates are compared on seasonal temperature and rainfall alone, each difference weighed against the city's usual swings from year to year (the method of Mahony et al. 2017); heat waves, the heat of city streets and the rising sea are left out. 2 of the 3 estimates from the climate models, the middle one and the two ends of their range, point to Mombasa. [9]

Everything else measured

From the highest among the world's 626 large cities to the lowest.

River flood depth, 100-year event [10] 10 cm higher than 87% of large cities
Drought risk [11] High the same grade as 44% of large cities; higher than 50%, lower than 6%
Earthquake shaking on firm ground, 10% chance in 50 years [12] moderate shaking, 0.05 g higher than 45% of large cities
Water stress [11] Medium-High: 20 to 40% of the available water drawn the same grade as 13% of large cities; higher than 43%, lower than 44%
Warming by 2050, if emissions level off [8] +1.8 °C higher than 37% of large cities
Hottest day of 2025 [6] 34.6 °C higher than 34% of large cities
Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 [6] 2 days higher than 16% of large cities
Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C [6] 0 days like 37% of large cities
Share of the land around the centre (a 10 km square) that a 100-year flood from the sea puts under 0.5 m of water or more [10] 0% today and by 2080 if emissions keep rising like 74% of large coastal cities
Share of land sinking over 1 cm a year, within 15 km [13] 0% like 80% of large cities
Land burned in an average year [14] 0% like 84% of large cities
  • Earthquake shaking is given for firm ground in g, the acceleration of gravity: around 0.1 g shaking is strong and can cause light damage, on the US Geological Survey's scale. The figure is the typical value over all the land within 15 km of the centre, not that of one point. Soft ground, such as an old lake bed or river silt, shakes harder.
  • Land subsidence comes from a model of satellite radar measurements from 2013 to 2019 in 2 km squares, read over all the land within 15 km of the centre rather than at one point.
  • Water stress is the share of the available water drawn every year. Drought risk is how often droughts come, against the area's own usual rain, and how many people and how much farmland they would reach. Both are graded on WRI's own scale.
  • If emissions level off: the IPCC's SSP2-4.5 scenario.
  • Water stress and drought risk have no rank in the country: they are steps of a scale, and many cities share one.
  • Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here.

The nearest large cities

Distance from centre to centre.

Large cities in Cuba

Climate risk in Cuba 

Sources

  1. IRIS: the Imperial College Storm Model dataset: tropical cyclone wind
  2. Environment and Climate Change Canada: Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS): the week's forecast map
  3. NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS): wildfire near the city now
  4. GDACS - Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System: drought and wildfire near the city now
  5. IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections: sea level rise
  6. ERA5 Single Levels Daily Statistics: nights, hottest day, heavy rain, hot days
  7. TerraClimate: the 2050s comparison
  8. NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6): the 2050s comparison, warming
  9. Mahony, Cannon, Wang and Aitken (2017). A closer look at novel climates: new methods and insights at continental to landscape scales. Global Change Biology 23, 3934-3955: how climates are compared
  10. Aqueduct Floods Hazard Maps: river flood depth, coastal floods
  11. Aqueduct 4.0 Water Risk Framework: drought risk, water stress
  12. GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map: earthquake shaking
  13. Global Land Subsidence Mapping Reveals Widespread Loss of Aquifer Storage Capacity: sinking land
  14. Global Biomass Burning at 500 m (GFED500): burned land

About these sources 

Cite or embed

Cite this page

In a line

Source: Criora (criora.com), based on IRIS, ECCC, NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), GDACS - Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System, IPCC, ECMWF, TerraClimate, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, GSHAP, HydroShare, GFED500

APA

Criora. (2026). Havana, Cuba: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 4, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/CUB/havana

BibTeX

@misc{criora_atlas_CUB_havana_2026,
  author = {{Criora}},
  title = {Havana, Cuba: climate risk profile},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://criora.com/atlas/CUB/havana},
  urldate = {2026-11-04}
}

The figures may be reused on the terms of their sources, which this page names.

Embed on your site

Free, no account needed. The widget has no script and shows the figures of this page. Keep its link to the source.