Criora

Climate risk in Tampa

Florida, United States of America · 2.3M people in the urban area

What threatens Tampa most

Cyclone wind
Category 1 once in 100 years IRIS
Earthquake
Low GSHAP
River flood
0.1 m in a 100-year flood

Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of United States of America

The sea at Tampa is projected to rise 306 mm by 2050 under moderate emissions.

New York: 346 mm.

306 mm © OpenStreetMap
0 1,000 mm
See the sea level rise around Tampa on the live map

Tampa's climate in the 2050s

2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions

By the 2050s, Tampa's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is Orlando (United States of America).

Climate risk in Orlando

+1.2°C

Mean temperature over the year

+1.3°C

Highest in the warmest month

+0.9°C

Lowest in the coldest month

+4%

Precipitation over the year

Under high emissions, Tampa would stay nearest its own climate today.

Its own climate today is 2.4 σ away. How close the match is: 5.1 σ to the climate of Orlando today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.

Sources: TerraClimate NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)

Where else Tampa stands out

0.1 m

River flood depth, 100-year event

New York: Dry at the city centre point.

Higher than in 86% of the world's 630 large cities

Hazards at Tampa

Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.

Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C 1 day Among large cities: above 38% In United States of America: 26 of 51
Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C 192 days Among large cities: above 72% In United States of America: 4 of 51
Hottest day of 2025 35.6°C Among large cities: above 44% In United States of America: 23 of 51
Warming by 2050, moderate emissions +2.1°C Among large cities: above 59% In United States of America: 37 of 51
Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 10 days Among large cities: above 51% In United States of America: 22 of 51
River flood depth, 100-year event 0.1 m Among large cities: above 86% In United States of America: 11 of 51
Coastal flood depth, 100-year event Dry at the city centre point
Sea level rise by 2050, moderate emissions 306 mm Among large cities: above 91% In United States of America: 9 of 19
Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years 0.09 m/s² Among large cities: above 9% In United States of America: 47 of 51
Land burned in an average year 0%
Cyclone wind, once in 100 years 41.95 m/s

Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Tampa on the live map

Sources: ERA5 Single Levels Daily Statistics NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) Aqueduct Floods Hazard Maps IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections Aqueduct 4.0 Water Risk Framework GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map Global Biomass Burning at 500 m (GFED500) IRIS: the Imperial College Storm Model dataset About these sources

See how deep a river flood reaches around Tampa on the live map

0.1 m © OpenStreetMap
0 3 m

Large cities near Tampa

Large cities in United States of America

Climate risk profile of United States of America

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In a line

Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500, IRIS: the Imperial College Storm Model dataset

APA

Criora. (2026). Tampa, United States of America: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/USA/tampa

BibTeX

@misc{criora_atlas_USA_tampa_2026,
  author = {{Criora}},
  title = {Tampa, United States of America: climate risk profile},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://criora.com/atlas/USA/tampa},
  urldate = {2026-11-02}
}

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