Criora

Climate risk in San Francisco

California, United States of America · 3.5M people in the urban area

What threatens San Francisco most

Earthquake
Very high GSHAP

Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of United States of America

An earthquake's shaking at San Francisco can reach 5.17 m/s², as strong as a once-in-475-years event.

New York: 0.61 m/s².

5.17 m/s² © OpenStreetMap
0 5 m/s²
See the earthquake hazard around San Francisco on the live map

San Francisco's climate in the 2050s

2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions

By the 2050s, San Francisco's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is Cape Town (South Africa).

Climate risk in Cape Town

+1.4°C

Mean temperature over the year

+1.7°C

Highest in the warmest month

+1.2°C

Lowest in the coldest month

+3%

Precipitation over the year

Under high emissions, San Francisco would stay nearest its own climate today.

Its own climate today is 2.0 σ away. How close the match is: 4.9 σ to the climate of Cape Town today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 2 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.

Sources: TerraClimate NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)

Hazards at San Francisco

Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.

Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C 0 days
Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C 0 days
Hottest day of 2025 26.2°C Among large cities: above 1% In United States of America: 51 of 51
Warming by 2050, moderate emissions +1.8°C Among large cities: above 35% In United States of America: 50 of 51
Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 3 days Among large cities: above 24% In United States of America: 44 of 51
River flood depth, 100-year event Dry at the city centre point
Coastal flood depth, 100-year event Dry at the city centre point
Sea level rise by 2050, moderate emissions 203 mm Among large cities: above 40% In United States of America: 13 of 19
Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years 5.17 m/s² Among large cities: above 98% In United States of America: 4 of 51
Land burned in an average year 0%
Cyclone wind, once in 100 years 0 m/s

Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around San Francisco on the live map

Sources: ERA5 Single Levels Daily Statistics NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) Aqueduct Floods Hazard Maps IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections Aqueduct 4.0 Water Risk Framework GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map Global Biomass Burning at 500 m (GFED500) About these sources

See the hottest days around San Francisco on the live map

26.2°C © OpenStreetMap
-40 55 °C

Large cities near San Francisco

Large cities in United States of America

Climate risk profile of United States of America

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In a line

Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500

APA

Criora. (2026). San Francisco, United States of America: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/USA/san-francisco

BibTeX

@misc{criora_atlas_USA_san_francisco_2026,
  author = {{Criora}},
  title = {San Francisco, United States of America: climate risk profile},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://criora.com/atlas/USA/san-francisco},
  urldate = {2026-11-02}
}

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