Climate risk in Mesa
Arizona, United States of America · 1.1M people in the urban area
What threatens Mesa most
- Water stress
- Extremely High WRI Aqueduct
- Drought
- Low-Medium WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- Low GSHAP
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of United States of America
Mesa's hottest day of 2025 reached 46.3°C.
New York: 36.7°C.
Mesa's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Mesa's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is Multan (Pakistan).
+1.8°C
Mean temperature over the year
+2°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.3°C
Lowest in the coldest month
+2%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Mesa would stay nearest its own climate today.
Its own climate today is 3.9 σ away. How close the match is: 6.3 σ to the climate of Multan today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Mesa stands out
141 days
Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C
New York: 3 days.
Higher than in 95% of the world's 630 large cities
+2.4°C
Warming by 2050, moderate emissions
New York: +2.7°C.
Higher than in 79% of the world's 630 large cities
Hazards at Mesa
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Mesa | Among large cities | In United States of America |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 141 days | Among large cities: above 95% | In United States of America: 2 of 51 |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 140 days | Among large cities: above 61% | In United States of America: 11 of 51 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 46.3°C | Among large cities: above 99% | In United States of America: 2 of 51 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +2.4°C | Among large cities: above 79% | In United States of America: 32 of 51 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 2 days | Among large cities: above 16% | In United States of America: 46 of 51 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Extremely High (>80%) | Among large cities: above 70% | In United States of America: 1 of 48 |
| Drought risk | Low-Medium | Among large cities: above 1% | In United States of America: 17 of 48 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 0.48 m/s² | Among large cities: above 44% | In United States of America: 16 of 51 |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Mesa on the live map
See the hot days around Mesa on the live map
141 days © OpenStreetMap Large cities in United States of America
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In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Mesa, United States of America: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/USA/mesa BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_USA_mesa_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Mesa, United States of America: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/USA/mesa},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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