Climate risk in Kigali
Kigali, Rwanda · 1.1M people in the urban area
What threatens Kigali most
- Drought
- High WRI Aqueduct
- Water stress
- Low WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- Low GSHAP
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Rwanda
Drought risk in Kigali: High, on WRI's scale.
Kisangani: Low.
High © OpenStreetMap Kigali's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Kigali's climate comes closest to that of Kampala (Uganda) today, though no large city matches it well.
Such a climate exists today, though not in any large city. Uganda: the place on the map
+1.4°C
Mean temperature over the year
+1.5°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.4°C
Lowest in the coldest month
+2%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, the nearest is Kampala (Uganda), and only in part.
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How close the match is: 3.0 σ to the climate of Kampala today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Hazards at Kigali
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Kigali | Among large cities | In Rwanda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 0 days | ||
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 0 days | ||
| Hottest day of 2025 | 31°C | Among large cities: above 11% | |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +1.7°C | Among large cities: above 30% | |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 1 day | Among large cities: above 7% | |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Low (<10%) | Among large cities: above 0% | |
| Drought risk | High | Among large cities: above 50% | |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 0.5 m/s² | Among large cities: above 45% | |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Kigali on the live map
See the hottest days around Kigali on the live map
31°C © OpenStreetMap Large cities in Rwanda
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In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Kigali, Rwanda: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/RWA/kigali BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_RWA_kigali_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Kigali, Rwanda: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/RWA/kigali},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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