Climate risk in Medellín
Antioquia, Colombia · 3.3M people in the urban area
What threatens Medellín most
- Earthquake
- High GSHAP
- Drought
- Low-Medium WRI Aqueduct
- Water stress
- Low WRI Aqueduct
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Colombia
Medellín had 29 days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025.
Bogotá: 7 days.
Medellín's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Medellín's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is Bandung (Indonesia).
+1.3°C
Mean temperature over the year
+1.4°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.3°C
Lowest in the coldest month
+3%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, no large city has such a climate today; the nearest is Cali (Colombia).
Its own climate today is 5.2 σ away. How close the match is: 6.3 σ to the climate of Bandung today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Medellín stands out
2.55 m/s²
Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years
Bogotá: 3.27 m/s².
Higher than in 86% of the world's 627 large cities
Hazards at Medellín
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Medellín | Among large cities | In Colombia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 0 days | ||
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 0 days | ||
| Hottest day of 2025 | 26.5°C | Among large cities: above 2% | In Colombia: 4 of 5 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +1.5°C | Among large cities: above 19% | In Colombia: 4 of 5 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 29 days | Among large cities: above 94% | In Colombia: 3 of 5 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Low (<10%) | Among large cities: above 0% | In Colombia: 2 of 5 |
| Drought risk | Low-Medium | Among large cities: above 1% | In Colombia: 4 of 5 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 2.55 m/s² | Among large cities: above 86% | In Colombia: 3 of 5 |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Medellín on the live map
See the earthquake hazard around Medellín on the live map
2.55 m/s² © OpenStreetMap Large cities near Medellín
- Bogotá · Colombia
- Bucaramanga · Colombia
- Cali · Colombia
- Barranquilla · Colombia
Large cities in Colombia
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In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Medellín, Colombia: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/COL/medellin BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_COL_medellin_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Medellín, Colombia: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/COL/medellin},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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