Climate risk in Paris
Île-de-France, France · 9.9M people in the urban area
What threatens Paris most
- Drought
- High WRI Aqueduct
- Water stress
- Low-Medium WRI Aqueduct
- River flood
- 0.51 m in a 100-year flood
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of France
A 100-year river flood would stand 0.51 m deep in the centre of Paris.
Lyon: 0.42 m.
The highest of the 4 large cities in France.
Paris's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Paris's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is Pamplona (Spain).
+1.3°C
Mean temperature over the year
+2.3°C
Highest in the warmest month
+0.8°C
Lowest in the coldest month
-3%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Paris would have the climate that İzmit (Turkey) has today.
Its own climate today is 0.6 σ away. How close the match is: 1.8 σ to the climate of Pamplona today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 2 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Hazards at Paris
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Paris | Among large cities | In France |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 4 days | Among large cities: above 49% | In France: 2 of 4 |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 0 days | ||
| Hottest day of 2025 | 38.2°C | Among large cities: above 66% | In France: 2 of 4 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +1.6°C | Among large cities: above 26% | In France: 3 of 4 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 2 days | Among large cities: above 16% | In France: 3 of 4 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | 0.51 m | Among large cities: above 93% | In France: 1 of 4 |
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Low-Medium (10-20%) | Among large cities: above 30% | In France: 3 of 4 |
| Drought risk | High | Among large cities: above 50% | In France: 1 of 4 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 0.38 m/s² | Among large cities: above 38% | In France: 4 of 4 |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Paris on the live map
See the hot days around Paris on the live map
4 days © OpenStreetMap Large cities in France
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Paris, France: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/FRA/paris BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_FRA_paris_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Paris, France: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/FRA/paris},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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