Climate risk in Seoul
Seoul, South Korea · 9.8M people in the urban area
What threatens Seoul most
- Water stress
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
- Drought
- Low-Medium WRI Aqueduct
- Cyclone wind
- Category 1 once in 100 years IRIS
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of South Korea
Seoul is projected to be +2.8°C warmer by 2050 under moderate emissions.
Busan: +2.3°C.
Seoul's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Seoul is projected to have the climate that Linyi (China) has today.
+1.8°C
Mean temperature over the year
+1.8°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.9°C
Lowest in the coldest month
+4%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Seoul would have the climate that Linyi (China) has today.
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How close the match is: 1.3 σ to the climate of Linyi today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 2 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Seoul stands out
21 days
Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025
Busan: 17 days.
The highest of the 9 large cities in South Korea.
Higher than in 87% of the world's 630 large cities
Hazards at Seoul
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Seoul | Among large cities | In South Korea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 8 days | Among large cities: above 55% | In South Korea: 3 of 9 |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 92 days | Among large cities: above 45% | In South Korea: 5 of 9 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 36.4°C | Among large cities: above 52% | In South Korea: 5 of 9 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +2.8°C | Among large cities: above 98% | In South Korea: 2 of 9 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 21 days | Among large cities: above 87% | In South Korea: 1 of 9 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Medium-High (20-40%) | Among large cities: above 43% | In South Korea: 2 of 8 |
| Drought risk | Low-Medium | Among large cities: above 1% | In South Korea: 8 of 8 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 0.33 m/s² | Among large cities: above 34% | In South Korea: 5 of 9 |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 38.04 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Seoul on the live map
See the heavy rain days around Seoul on the live map
21 days © OpenStreetMap Cite or embed
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In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500, IRIS: the Imperial College Storm Model dataset
APA
Criora. (2026). Seoul, South Korea: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/KOR/seoul BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_KOR_seoul_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Seoul, South Korea: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/KOR/seoul},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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