Climate risk in Medina
Medina Region, Saudi Arabia · 1M people in the urban area
What threatens Medina most
- Earthquake
- Low GSHAP
- River flood
- 0.07 m in a 100-year flood
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Saudi Arabia
Medina had 201 days over 35 °C in 2025.
Riyadh: 183 days.
Medina's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Medina's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is Riyadh (Saudi Arabia).
+1.9°C
Mean temperature over the year
+2°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.6°C
Lowest in the coldest month
+57%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Medina would stay nearest its own climate today.
Its own climate today is 2.9 σ away. How close the match is: 11.0 σ to the climate of Riyadh today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 2 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Medina stands out
45.9°C
Hottest day of 2025
Riyadh: 46.3°C.
Higher than in 98% of the world's 630 large cities
0.07 m
River flood depth, 100-year event
Riyadh: Dry at the city centre point.
The highest of the 5 large cities in Saudi Arabia.
Higher than in 86% of the world's 630 large cities
Hazards at Medina
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Medina | Among large cities | In Saudi Arabia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 201 days | Among large cities: above 99% | In Saudi Arabia: 2 of 5 |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 211 days | Among large cities: above 75% | In Saudi Arabia: 4 of 5 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 45.9°C | Among large cities: above 98% | In Saudi Arabia: 3 of 5 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +2.3°C | Among large cities: above 75% | In Saudi Arabia: 2 of 5 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 0 days | ||
| River flood depth, 100-year event | 0.07 m | Among large cities: above 86% | In Saudi Arabia: 1 of 5 |
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Arid & Low Use | ||
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 0.38 m/s² | Among large cities: above 38% | In Saudi Arabia: 3 of 4 |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Medina on the live map
See the hottest days around Medina on the live map
45.9°C © OpenStreetMap Large cities in Saudi Arabia
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Medina, Saudi Arabia: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/SAU/medina BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_SAU_medina_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Medina, Saudi Arabia: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/SAU/medina},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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