Climate risk in Karachi
Sindh, Pakistan
Main risks in Karachi
On earthquakes, Karachi ranks above at least 71% of the world's 626 large cities. Its storm winds, about 90 km/h once in 100 years, stay below hurricane force, though higher than in 79% of large cities. [2]
- Earthquakes
- strong shaking on firm ground (0.14 g), more on soft ground [1]
- Higher than 71% of the world's large cities; 11th of 12 large cities in Pakistan.
- For comparison: Yangon 0.15 g, Delhi 0.15 g, Cairo 0.13 g.
- g is the pull of gravity: from about 0.1 g, shaking is strong and can cause light damage to buildings.
0.14 g Natural Earth Earthquake shaking on firm ground, 10% chance in 50 years
This week in Karachi
This week's forecast risk around the city, by day and by hour, and the hazard events near it now. [3] [4]
This week's forecast for the city cannot be shown here right now.
Open the city on the mapThe Earth right now
The Earth's pulse reads the whole world, not this city, so it is the same on every city's page.
Earth's pulse, from 0 to 100. It rises with the number of people in the path of disasters now under way; 90 matches the 2004 tsunami.
Open the live mapWhere else Karachi stands out
275 nights
Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C [5]
Higher than 84% of the world's large cities; 1st of 12 large cities in Pakistan.
For comparison: Chittagong 298 nights, Miami 295 nights, Kolkata 261 nights.
extremely high
Water stress [6]
The top grade of its scale, shared by 30% of the world's large cities.
Around the city on the map
Water stress
Natural Earth Karachi's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, if emissions level off [7] [8]
By the 2050s, Karachi is projected to have a climate that no large city has today, not even Karachi itself. Of the others, Mandalay (Myanmar) comes closest, and it is still far off.
+1.3 °C
Mean temperature over the year
+1.1 °C
Average daily high, warmest month
+1.6 °C
Average nightly low, coldest month
+24%
Precipitation over the year
If emissions keep rising, it will differ even more from the climate of every large city today.
Climates are compared on seasonal temperature and rainfall alone, each difference weighed against the city's usual swings from year to year (the method of Mahony et al. 2017); heat waves, the heat of city streets and the rising sea are left out. All 3 estimates from the climate models, the middle one and the two ends of their range, point to Mandalay. [9]
Everything else measured
From the highest among the world's 626 large cities to the lowest.
| Reading | Karachi | Among 626 large cities | Rank in Pakistan (1 = highest) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hottest day of 2025 [5] | 36 °C | higher than 47% of large cities | Rank in Pakistan (1 = highest): 11 of 12 |
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C [5] | 3 days | higher than 46% of large cities | Rank in Pakistan (1 = highest): 11 of 12 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 [5] | 4 days | higher than 30% of large cities | Rank in Pakistan (1 = highest): 9 of 12 |
| Warming by 2050, if emissions level off [8] | +1.5 °C | higher than 17% of large cities | Rank in Pakistan (1 = highest): 12 of 12 |
| Sea level rise by 2050 over the 1995-2014 average, if emissions level off [10] | 18 cm, 14 cm of it after 2020 | higher than 12% of large coastal cities | |
| River flood depth, 100-year event [11] | Dry at the centre; other districts can flood | like 85% of large cities | |
| Share of the land around the centre (a 10 km square) that a 100-year flood from the sea puts under 0.5 m of water or more [11] | 0% today and by 2080 if emissions keep rising | like 74% of large coastal cities | |
| Share of land sinking over 1 cm a year, within 15 km [12] | 0% | like 80% of large cities | |
| Land burned in an average year [13] | 0% | like 84% of large cities |
- Flood depth is given for one 1 km square at the city centre, in today's climate.
- Land subsidence comes from a model of satellite radar measurements from 2013 to 2019 in 2 km squares, read over all the land within 15 km of the centre rather than at one point.
- Sea level rise is the IPCC projection for the nearest coast, counted from the 1995-2014 average. It is on a grid about 100 km across and counts the slow rise or fall of the land. "If emissions level off" is the IPCC's SSP2-4.5 scenario.
- Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here.
Large cities in Pakistan
Sources
- GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map: earthquake shaking
- IRIS: the Imperial College Storm Model dataset: tropical cyclone wind
- Environment and Climate Change Canada: Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS): the week's forecast map
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS): wildfire near the city now
- ERA5 Single Levels Daily Statistics: nights, hottest day, hot days, heavy rain
- Aqueduct 4.0 Water Risk Framework: water stress
- TerraClimate: the 2050s comparison
- NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6): the 2050s comparison, warming
- Mahony, Cannon, Wang and Aitken (2017). A closer look at novel climates: new methods and insights at continental to landscape scales. Global Change Biology 23, 3934-3955: how climates are compared
- IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections: sea level rise
- Aqueduct Floods Hazard Maps: river flood depth, coastal floods
- Global Land Subsidence Mapping Reveals Widespread Loss of Aquifer Storage Capacity: sinking land
- Global Biomass Burning at 500 m (GFED500): burned land
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In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on GSHAP, IRIS, ECCC, NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), ECMWF, WRI, TerraClimate, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, IPCC, HydroShare, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Karachi, Pakistan: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 4, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/PAK/karachi BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_PAK_karachi_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Karachi, Pakistan: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/PAK/karachi},
urldate = {2026-11-04}
} The figures may be reused on the terms of their sources, which this page names.
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