Climate risk in Manila
National Capital Region, Philippines · 11.1M people in the urban area
What threatens Manila most
- Cyclone wind
- Category 4 once in 100 years IRIS
- Drought
- High WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- High GSHAP
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Philippines
The sea at Manila is projected to rise 456 mm by 2050 under moderate emissions.
Davao City: 212 mm.
Manila's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Manila's climate comes closest to that of Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam) today, though no large city matches it well.
Such a climate exists today, though not in any large city. Thailand: the place on the map
Climate risk in Ho Chi Minh City
+1.1°C
Mean temperature over the year
+1.1°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.1°C
Lowest in the coldest month
+2%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, the nearest is Bangkok (Thailand), and only in part.
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How close the match is: 2.4 σ to the climate of Ho Chi Minh City today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 2 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Manila stands out
35 days
Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025
Quezon City: 51 days.
Higher than in 97% of the world's 630 large cities
3.8 m/s²
Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years
Quezon City: 3.76 m/s².
The highest of the 4 large cities in Philippines.
Higher than in 95% of the world's 627 large cities
Hazards at Manila
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Manila | Among large cities | In Philippines |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 29 days | Among large cities: above 71% | In Philippines: 1 of 4 |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 365 days | Among large cities: above 93% | In Philippines: 1 of 4 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 36.7°C | Among large cities: above 54% | In Philippines: 1 of 4 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +1.5°C | Among large cities: above 20% | In Philippines: 2 of 4 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 35 days | Among large cities: above 97% | In Philippines: 3 of 4 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Sea level rise by 2050, moderate emissions | 456 mm | Among large cities: above 99% | In Philippines: 1 of 4 |
| Water stress | Medium-High (20-40%) | Among large cities: above 43% | In Philippines: 1 of 4 |
| Drought risk | High | Among large cities: above 50% | In Philippines: 1 of 4 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 3.8 m/s² | Among large cities: above 95% | In Philippines: 1 of 4 |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 58.16 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Manila on the live map
See the heavy rain days around Manila on the live map
35 days © OpenStreetMap Large cities near Manila
- Quezon City · Philippines
- Cagayan de Oro · Philippines
- Davao City · Philippines
- Shantou · China
Large cities in Philippines
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500, IRIS: the Imperial College Storm Model dataset
APA
Criora. (2026). Manila, Philippines: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/PHL/manila BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_PHL_manila_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Manila, Philippines: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/PHL/manila},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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