Climate risk in Durban
KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa · 2.7M people in the urban area
What threatens Durban most
- Drought
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
- Water stress
- Low-Medium WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- Low GSHAP
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of South Africa
Durban had 114 days in 2025 when the night never cooled below 20 °C.
Johannesburg: 0 days.
The highest of the 7 large cities in South Africa.
Durban's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Durban's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is Vitória (Brazil).
+1.2°C
Mean temperature over the year
+1.2°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.2°C
Lowest in the coldest month
-2%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Durban would stay nearest its own climate today.
Its own climate today is 3.2 σ away. How close the match is: 8.9 σ to the climate of Vitória today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 1 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Hazards at Durban
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Durban | Among large cities | In South Africa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 1 day | Among large cities: above 38% | In South Africa: 1 of 7 |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 114 days | Among large cities: above 55% | In South Africa: 1 of 7 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 36.7°C | Among large cities: above 54% | In South Africa: 1 of 7 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +1.3°C | Among large cities: above 6% | In South Africa: 6 of 7 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 10 days | Among large cities: above 51% | In South Africa: 5 of 7 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Low-Medium (10-20%) | Among large cities: above 30% | In South Africa: 7 of 7 |
| Drought risk | Medium-High | Among large cities: above 13% | In South Africa: 5 of 7 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 0.57 m/s² | Among large cities: above 48% | In South Africa: 1 of 7 |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Durban on the live map
See the hot days around Durban on the live map
1 day © OpenStreetMap Large cities near Durban
- Maputo · Mozambique
- Vereeniging · South Africa
- Benoni · South Africa
- Johannesburg · South Africa
Large cities in South Africa
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Durban, South Africa: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/ZAF/durban BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_ZAF_durban_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Durban, South Africa: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/ZAF/durban},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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