Climate risk in Pretoria
Gauteng, South Africa · 1.3M people in the urban area
What threatens Pretoria most
- Water stress
- Extremely High WRI Aqueduct
- Drought
- High WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- Low GSHAP
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of South Africa
In an average year, fire burns 4% of the land around Pretoria.
Johannesburg: 2%.
4% © OpenStreetMap Pretoria's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Pretoria's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is León (Mexico).
+1.8°C
Mean temperature over the year
+2°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.5°C
Lowest in the coldest month
-2%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Pretoria would stay nearest its own climate today.
Its own climate today is 3.5 σ away. How close the match is: 5.0 σ to the climate of León today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Hazards at Pretoria
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Pretoria | Among large cities | In South Africa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 0 days | ||
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 3 days | Among large cities: above 18% | In South Africa: 3 of 7 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 32.7°C | Among large cities: above 20% | In South Africa: 2 of 7 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +1.8°C | Among large cities: above 38% | In South Africa: 1 of 7 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 15 days | Among large cities: above 71% | In South Africa: 4 of 7 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Extremely High (>80%) | Among large cities: above 70% | In South Africa: 1 of 7 |
| Drought risk | High | Among large cities: above 50% | In South Africa: 1 of 7 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 0.07 m/s² | Among large cities: above 5% | In South Africa: 7 of 7 |
| Land burned in an average year | 4% | Among large cities: above 96% | In South Africa: 3 of 7 |
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Pretoria on the live map
See the tropical nights around Pretoria on the live map
3 days © OpenStreetMap Large cities near Pretoria
- Benoni · South Africa
- Johannesburg · South Africa
- Vereeniging · South Africa
- Maputo · Mozambique
Large cities in South Africa
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Pretoria, South Africa: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/ZAF/pretoria BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_ZAF_pretoria_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Pretoria, South Africa: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/ZAF/pretoria},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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