Journal des modifications de la méthodologie

1.0.0 (2026-10-25)

• Criora Severity v1: a rank from 0 to 100 for every hazard event, from its official level on a common scale, the people inside its footprint (GHS-POP 2025) and its reading's place among its type's, fitted on real past situations by what happened afterwards; every list is ordered by it, the map's list of what matters now and the world's most critical among them. A CAP severity is a step lower, on the common scale and in its grade, when its message calls the hazard only possible, as a watch does, and Low when it calls it unlikely.
• Every report says where it came from, its issuer's level and how far it can be relied on; each answer says when each source was last read.
• Air quality from EPA AirNow monitors and CAMS forecast areas in place of OpenAQ; a forecast area is listed on its own day, below what a monitor measures.
• The Earth's pulse: one figure from 0 to 100 for the whole Earth, read every five minutes from the people within reach of every graded event in force, on a logarithmic scale of five levels where 90 is a disaster on the scale of 2004's, on the map, in the atlas and at /world/danger and /world/pulse.
• A FIRMS fire holds every detection around it; detections on known industrial and volcanic heat sources, or radiating more than a fire can, are left out. A fire only a satellite has seen is graded Low, as GDACS grades a fire whose impact on people is not yet known; its power and the people around it order it among fires. A fire's power is the whole fire's at the overpass that saw it strongest, and a fire several sensors see is named, placed and counted by the strongest of them.
• Warnings are kept 400 days; a storm's value is its advised wind in knots; an earthquake keeps every magnitude USGS gave it.
• A volcano's alert level from JMA, USGS and GeoNet is a standing status, in force while its observatory lists it and placed on the common scale by whom the level restricts; JMA's adds the week's eruptions, explosions and highest plume. A level at its observatory's background reaches nobody.
• Storms in the western Pacific are read from JMA, RSMC Tokyo, in its 10-minute wind, classes and 70 % cone; in the Indian Ocean and the Southern Hemisphere from JTWC, in its 1-minute wind on the Saffir-Simpson scale with a cone Criora draws for it. Winds are never converted from one averaging to another.
• Canada's official alerts from Environment and Climate Change Canada, in its own yellow, orange or red; a statement, which ECCC does not colour, by its CAP severity. Only an actual alert is read from any service, never a test or an exercise.
• Mexico's rain advisories from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, which colours none, by their CAP severity. A WIS2 warning its service places by CAP severity alone, SMN's and ECCC's statements, takes that severity's place on the common scale, as an NWS alert does.
• South Korea's advisories and warnings from the Korea Meteorological Administration, at its own two levels, each over the areas its message still holds in force: KMA clears or upgrades some areas of a message and leaves the others.
• Volcanic ash from the advisories of the nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres: the cloud each observes or estimates, while its centre advises on it, graded by how high it reaches or by its aviation colour code where that is higher.
• India's warnings from the India Meteorological Department, through WIS2, by their CAP severity under their own names, over the districts they name by LGD code, as the districts stood in 2021.
• Brazil's warnings from the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, through WIS2, in its own yellow, orange or red over the areas they draw; its low humidity warning is a fire-danger warning, as KMA's dryness is.
• The Philippines' warnings from PAGASA: its general flood advisories by their CAP severity, and its tropical cyclone wind signals, each placed on the common scale by the impacts PAGASA expects of it, over their provinces; a storm's newest bulletin is what stands, and a final advisory ends the one it names.
• JTWC's tropical cyclone formation alerts are warnings of the band a storm may form in within a day, graded by the highest wind JTWC estimates there and in force until JTWC says it will reissue, upgrade or cancel them.
• The forecast ranks the cities and countries the next 1 to 7 days put most at risk, by how high their risk reaches and the people it reaches (GHS-POP 2025), never by land.
• The forecast reads a whole country or region day by day: every cell it covers, weighted by the share inside, each day at its worst hour with the share of the area at each class by hazard, and its worst point with the reading behind it.
• A long-term layer over a country or a region, and every Atlas projection, counts each cell of the source's own grid by its area inside, on the sphere. The projections had sampled each part of a country on a capped grid of equal pixels, which under-read a large mainland against its islands: Russia's area under 0.5 m of a 100-year river flood is 1.5 %, not 0.6 %.
• A place's long-term layers include its earthquake hazard: GSHAP's peak ground acceleration with a 10 % chance of being exceeded in 50 years, on land only, as GSHAP publishes its map.
• A CMIP6 change at a point carries the 10th to 90th percentile of its models beside their median, as the IPCC AR6 Atlas states a projection.
• Financial estimates: indicative damage to an asset from river and coastal flooding and tropical cyclone wind, its expected annual damage and the damage of the 50 to 500-year events, low to high, today or in 2050 and 2080. Flood depths from WRI Aqueduct Floods with FLOPROS's defences, cyclone winds from IRIS, damage from the JRC's depth-damage curves and Emanuel's wind function calibrated by Eberenz et al. Each hazard and their sum rated on XDI's published scale of annual damage as a share of replacement cost, a hazard material from its moderate band, with its EU Taxonomy hazard and EBA Pillar 3 family.
• The replacement cost of the buildings in every 1 km cell, homes apart from the rest, from GHS-BUILT-V 2025: an estimate's value where none is given, and the value inside every event's footprint.
• One event is one record: GDACS's events are told apart by hazard as well as by number; a quake USGS files under a new id, or whose solution its network deletes, ends its earlier record; a storm GDACS names only by number joins its agency's by its designation.
• An event ends when its issuer ends it: a warning updated or cancelled to no warning, as MeteoAlarm's update to green; a forecast NWS issues again, which continues its earlier issuance; a storm on JTWC's final warning; a quake, storm or fire of GDACS's once GDACS no longer calls it current. An eruption GDACS does not report again ends on its own.
• GDACS's Green alert, low expected impact in GDACS's own words, is graded Low, as PAGER's green is.
• A GDACS drought's alert states the impact it models for agricultural drought, not the humanitarian impact its other alerts expect: Orange, a medium impact, is graded Medium and a step below GDACS's Orange elsewhere on the common scale, Red High. A drought's rank does not count the people inside its area, who live where it is rather than are harmed by it.
• A GDACS flood or drought is the area GDACS draws for its episode, a flood's affected area and a drought's, drawn on the map in place of a point: from the world's view at Medium and above, closer in below it. A place inside the area is inside the event.
• The map's list of what matters most names every event graded High or Critical in view, however many, and the rest by rank.
• Earthquakes USGS does not list, most of them small and outside the United States, from EMSC, each the solution of the agency EMSC names, with the felt reports people send EMSC; a quake both list is USGS's. A strong one USGS has not yet published is graded Low until it does.
• A record reported by several sources is graded by its type's authority where it reports it, USGS for a quake and the warning centre for a storm; else by the levels issuers gave it; a sensor's reading grades it only where no issuer has. A storm's wind class grades and ranks it only where GDACS has not weighed the harm it threatens: a very strong typhoon over the open sea that GDACS alerts Green is Low. GDACS gives a storm's wind as the strongest of its whole life, so a storm it alone reports is shown in its peak category, named so.