Climate risk in Kobe
Hyogo, Japan
Main risks in Kobe
On tropical cyclones, earthquakes and coastal floods, Kobe ranks above at least 87% of the world's 626 large cities.
- Tropical cyclones
- once in 100 years, winds of about 165 km/h (category 2) [1]
- Higher than 95% of the world's large cities; 7th of 11 large cities in Japan.
- For comparison: Chennai 186 km/h, Guangzhou 171 km/h, Fort Lauderdale 167 km/h.
- Earthquakes
- severe shaking on firm ground (0.38 g), more on soft ground [2]
- Higher than 94% of the world's large cities; 4th of 11 large cities in Japan.
- For comparison: Santiago 0.4 g, Quezon City 0.39 g, Irvine 0.36 g.
- g is the pull of gravity: from about 0.1 g, shaking is strong and can cause light damage to buildings.
- Coastal floods
- a 100-year flood from the sea puts 4.3% of the land around the centre (a 10 km square) under 0.5 m of water or more; 6% by 2080 if emissions keep rising [3]
- Higher than 87% of the world's large coastal cities; 2nd of 11 large coastal cities in Japan.
- For comparison: Shenzhen 3%, Ho Chi Minh City 2.8%, Manila 2.3%.
0.38 g Natural Earth Earthquake shaking on firm ground, 10% chance in 50 years
This week in Kobe
This week's forecast risk around the city, by day and by hour, and the hazard events near it now. [4]
This week's forecast for the city cannot be shown here right now.
Open the city on the mapThe Earth right now
The Earth's pulse reads the whole world, not this city, so it is the same on every city's page.
Earth's pulse, from 0 to 100. It rises with the number of people in the path of disasters now under way; 90 matches the 2004 tsunami.
Open the live mapWhere else Kobe stands out
19 days
Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 [5]
Higher than 82% of the world's large cities; 3rd of 11 large cities in Japan.
For comparison: Wuhan 20 days, Hyderabad 18 days, Johannesburg 18 days.
Around the city on the map
Coastal floods
Natural Earth Coastal flood depth, 100-year event, in today's climate
Kobe's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, if emissions level off [6] [7]
By the 2050s, Kobe is projected to have the climate that Ningbo (China) has today.
+1.5 °C
Mean temperature over the year
+1.4 °C
Average daily high, warmest month
+1.2 °C
Average nightly low, coldest month
0%
Precipitation over the year
If emissions keep rising, the comparison comes out the same.
Climates are compared on seasonal temperature and rainfall alone, each difference weighed against the city's usual swings from year to year (the method of Mahony et al. 2017); heat waves, the heat of city streets and the rising sea are left out. All 3 estimates from the climate models, the middle one and the two ends of their range, point to Ningbo. [8]
Everything else measured
From the highest among the world's 626 large cities to the lowest.
| Reading | Kobe | Among 626 large cities | Rank in Japan (1 = highest) |
|---|---|---|---|
| River flood depth, 100-year event [3] | 24 cm | higher than 90% of large cities | Rank in Japan (1 = highest): 2 of 11 |
| Warming by 2050, if emissions level off [7] | +2.2 °C | higher than 70% of large cities | Rank in Japan (1 = highest): 7 of 11 |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C [5] | 123 nights | higher than 58% of large cities | Rank in Japan (1 = highest): 1 of 11 |
| Hottest day of 2025 [5] | 35 °C | higher than 38% of large cities | Rank in Japan (1 = highest): 7 of 11 |
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C [5] | 1 day | higher than 37% of large cities | Rank in Japan (1 = highest): 6 of 11 |
| Water stress [9] | Low-Medium: 10 to 20% of the available water drawn | the same grade as 12% of large cities; higher than 30%, lower than 58% | |
| Sea level rise by 2050 over the 1995-2014 average, if emissions level off [10] | 19 cm, 14 cm of it after 2020 | higher than 20% of large coastal cities | Rank in Japan (1 = highest): 9 of 11 |
| Drought risk [9] | Low-Medium | the same grade as 11% of large cities; higher than 1%, lower than 88% | |
| Share of land sinking over 1 cm a year, within 15 km [11] | 0% | like 80% of large cities | |
| Land burned in an average year [12] | 0% | like 84% of large cities |
- Land subsidence comes from a model of satellite radar measurements from 2013 to 2019 in 2 km squares, read over all the land within 15 km of the centre rather than at one point.
- Water stress is the share of the available water drawn every year. Drought risk is how often droughts come, against the area's own usual rain, and how many people and how much farmland they would reach. Both are graded on WRI's own scale.
- Sea level rise is the IPCC projection for the nearest coast, counted from the 1995-2014 average. It is on a grid about 100 km across and counts the slow rise or fall of the land. "If emissions level off" is the IPCC's SSP2-4.5 scenario.
- Water stress and drought risk have no rank in the country: they are steps of a scale, and many cities share one.
- Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here.
Sources
- IRIS: the Imperial College Storm Model dataset: tropical cyclone wind
- GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map: earthquake shaking
- Aqueduct Floods Hazard Maps: coastal floods, river flood depth
- Environment and Climate Change Canada: Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS): the week's forecast map
- ERA5 Single Levels Daily Statistics: heavy rain, nights, hottest day, hot days
- TerraClimate: the 2050s comparison
- NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6): the 2050s comparison, warming
- Mahony, Cannon, Wang and Aitken (2017). A closer look at novel climates: new methods and insights at continental to landscape scales. Global Change Biology 23, 3934-3955: how climates are compared
- Aqueduct 4.0 Water Risk Framework: water stress, drought risk
- IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections: sea level rise
- Global Land Subsidence Mapping Reveals Widespread Loss of Aquifer Storage Capacity: sinking land
- Global Biomass Burning at 500 m (GFED500): burned land
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on IRIS, GSHAP, WRI, ECCC, ECMWF, TerraClimate, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, IPCC, HydroShare, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Kobe, Japan: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 4, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/JPN/kobe BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_JPN_kobe_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Kobe, Japan: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/JPN/kobe},
urldate = {2026-11-04}
} The figures may be reused on the terms of their sources, which this page names.
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