Climate risk in Nagoya
Aichi, Japan · 3.2M people in the urban area
What threatens Nagoya most
- Earthquake
- High GSHAP
- Water stress
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
- Drought
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Japan
An earthquake's shaking at Nagoya can reach 3.76 m/s², as strong as a once-in-475-years event.
Tokyo: 3.61 m/s².
Nagoya's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Nagoya's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is Jinhua (China).
+1.5°C
Mean temperature over the year
+1.4°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.2°C
Lowest in the coldest month
+1%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Nagoya would have the climate that Jinhua (China) has today.
Its own climate today is 1.4 σ away. How close the match is: 1.6 σ to the climate of Jinhua today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 2 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Nagoya stands out
19 days
Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025
Tokyo: 14 days.
Higher than in 82% of the world's 630 large cities
45 days
Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C
Tokyo: 27 days.
The highest of the 11 large cities in Japan.
Higher than in 79% of the world's 630 large cities
Hazards at Nagoya
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Nagoya | Among large cities | In Japan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 45 days | Among large cities: above 79% | In Japan: 1 of 11 |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 107 days | Among large cities: above 50% | In Japan: 7 of 11 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 39.4°C | Among large cities: above 73% | In Japan: 1 of 11 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +2.3°C | Among large cities: above 71% | In Japan: 4 of 11 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 19 days | Among large cities: above 82% | In Japan: 3 of 11 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Sea level rise by 2050, moderate emissions | 71 mm | Among large cities: above 1% | In Japan: 10 of 10 |
| Water stress | Medium-High (20-40%) | Among large cities: above 43% | In Japan: 1 of 11 |
| Drought risk | Medium-High | Among large cities: above 13% | In Japan: 1 of 11 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 3.76 m/s² | Among large cities: above 94% | In Japan: 3 of 11 |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 45.32 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Nagoya on the live map
See the heavy rain days around Nagoya on the live map
19 days © OpenStreetMap Cite or embed
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In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Nagoya, Japan: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/JPN/nagoya BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_JPN_nagoya_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Nagoya, Japan: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/JPN/nagoya},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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