Climate risk in Amsterdam
North Holland, Netherlands
Main risks in Amsterdam
On coastal floods, Amsterdam ranks above at least 98% of the world's 626 large cities.
- Coastal floods
- a 100-year flood from the sea puts 40% of the land around the centre (a 10 km square) under 0.5 m of water or more; 69% by 2080 if emissions keep rising [1]
- Higher than 98% of the world's large coastal cities; 1st of 3 large coastal cities in the Netherlands.
- For comparison: Howrah 28%, Chittagong 23%, Yangon 8.8%.
Natural Earth Coastal flood depth, 100-year event, in today's climate
This week in Amsterdam
This week's forecast risk around the city, by day and by hour, and the hazard events near it now. [2] [3]
This week's forecast for the city cannot be shown here right now.
Open the city on the mapThe Earth right now
The Earth's pulse reads the whole world, not this city, so it is the same on every city's page.
Earth's pulse, from 0 to 100. It rises with the number of people in the path of disasters now under way; 90 matches the 2004 tsunami.
Open the live mapWhere else Amsterdam stands out
25 cm
Sea level rise by 2050 if emissions level off, counted from the 1995-2014 average; 17 cm of it comes after 2020 [4]
Higher than 88% of the world's large coastal cities; 2nd of 3 large coastal cities in the Netherlands.
For comparison: Barcelona 24 cm, Luanda 24 cm, St Petersburg 24 cm.
Amsterdam's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, if emissions level off [5] [6]
By the 2050s, Amsterdam is projected to have the climate that Brussels (Belgium) has today.
+1.2 °C
Mean temperature over the year
+1.5 °C
Average daily high, warmest month
+1.0 °C
Average nightly low, coldest month
-1%
Precipitation over the year
If emissions keep rising, the comparison comes out the same.
Share this comparison
Climates are compared on seasonal temperature and rainfall alone, each difference weighed against the city's usual swings from year to year (the method of Mahony et al. 2017); heat waves, the heat of city streets and the rising sea are left out. All 3 estimates from the climate models, the middle one and the two ends of their range, point to Brussels. [7]
Everything else measured
From the highest among the world's 626 large cities to the lowest.
| Reading | Amsterdam | Among 626 large cities | Rank in the Netherlands (1 = highest) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hottest day of 2025 [8] | 34.3 °C | higher than 31% of large cities | Rank in the Netherlands (1 = highest): 2 of 3 |
| Earthquake shaking on firm ground, 10% chance in 50 years [9] | light shaking, 0.03 g | higher than 25% of large cities | Rank in the Netherlands (1 = highest): 3 of 3 |
| Warming by 2050, if emissions level off [6] | +1.4 °C | higher than 13% of large cities | Rank in the Netherlands (1 = highest): 2 of 3 |
| Drought risk [10] | Medium-High | the same grade as 38% of large cities; higher than 12%, lower than 50% | |
| Water stress [10] | Low: under 10% of the available water drawn | lowest grade, like 30% of large cities | |
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C [8] | 0 days | like 37% of large cities | |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C [8] | 0 nights | like 14% of large cities | |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 [8] | 0 days | like 7% of large cities | |
| River flood depth, 100-year event [1] | Dry at the centre; other districts can flood | like 85% of large cities | |
| Share of land sinking over 1 cm a year, within 15 km [11] | 0% | like 80% of large cities | |
| Land burned in an average year [12] | 0% | like 84% of large cities | |
| Tropical cyclone wind, once in 100 years [13] | No hurricane or typhoon reaches here | like 71% of large cities |
- Flood depth is given for one 1 km square at the city centre, in today's climate.
- Earthquake shaking is given for firm ground in g, the acceleration of gravity: around 0.1 g shaking is strong and can cause light damage, on the US Geological Survey's scale. The figure is the typical value over all the land within 15 km of the centre, not that of one point. Soft ground, such as an old lake bed or river silt, shakes harder.
- Land subsidence comes from a model of satellite radar measurements from 2013 to 2019 in 2 km squares, read over all the land within 15 km of the centre rather than at one point.
- Water stress is the share of the available water drawn every year. Drought risk is how often droughts come, against the area's own usual rain, and how many people and how much farmland they would reach. Both are graded on WRI's own scale.
- If emissions level off: the IPCC's SSP2-4.5 scenario.
- Water stress and drought risk have no rank in the country: they are steps of a scale, and many cities share one.
- Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here.
Large cities in the Netherlands
Sources
- Aqueduct Floods Hazard Maps: coastal floods, river flood depth
- Environment and Climate Change Canada: Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS): the week's forecast map
- EUMETNET MeteoAlarm, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, the India Meteorological Department, Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia and national weather services, via WMO WIS2: windstorm near the city now
- IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections: sea level rise
- TerraClimate: the 2050s comparison
- NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6): the 2050s comparison, warming
- Mahony, Cannon, Wang and Aitken (2017). A closer look at novel climates: new methods and insights at continental to landscape scales. Global Change Biology 23, 3934-3955: how climates are compared
- ERA5 Single Levels Daily Statistics: hottest day, hot days, nights, heavy rain
- GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map: earthquake shaking
- Aqueduct 4.0 Water Risk Framework: drought risk, water stress
- Global Land Subsidence Mapping Reveals Widespread Loss of Aquifer Storage Capacity: sinking land
- Global Biomass Burning at 500 m (GFED500): burned land
- IRIS: the Imperial College Storm Model dataset: tropical cyclone wind
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In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on WRI, ECCC, EUMETNET MeteoAlarm, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, the India Meteorological Department, Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia and national weather services, via WMO WIS2, IPCC, TerraClimate, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, ECMWF, GSHAP, HydroShare, GFED500, IRIS
APA
Criora. (2026). Amsterdam, Netherlands: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 4, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/NLD/amsterdam BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_NLD_amsterdam_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Amsterdam, Netherlands: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/NLD/amsterdam},
urldate = {2026-11-04}
} The figures may be reused on the terms of their sources, which this page names.
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