Climate risk in Cartagena
Murcia, Spain · 201.3K people in the urban area
What threatens Cartagena most
- Water stress
- Extremely High WRI Aqueduct
- Drought
- High WRI Aqueduct
- River flood
- 0.09 m in a 100-year flood
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Spain
A 100-year river flood would stand 0.09 m deep in the centre of Cartagena.
Madrid: Dry at the city centre point.
Cartagena's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Cartagena's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is Tunis (Tunisia).
+1.3°C
Mean temperature over the year
+1.9°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1°C
Lowest in the coldest month
-12%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Cartagena would stay nearest its own climate today.
Its own climate today is 5.1 σ away. How close the match is: 6.7 σ to the climate of Tunis today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 1 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Hazards at Cartagena
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Cartagena | Among large cities | In Spain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 0 days | ||
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 145 days | Among large cities: above 62% | In Spain: 1 of 24 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 33°C | Among large cities: above 22% | In Spain: 18 of 24 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +1.8°C | Among large cities: above 39% | In Spain: 8 of 24 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 3 days | Among large cities: above 24% | In Spain: 12 of 24 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | 0.09 m | Among large cities: above 86% | In Spain: 4 of 24 |
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Sea level rise by 2050, moderate emissions | 210 mm | Among large cities: above 50% | In Spain: 12 of 15 |
| Water stress | Extremely High (>80%) | Among large cities: above 70% | In Spain: 1 of 24 |
| Drought risk | High | Among large cities: above 50% | In Spain: 1 of 22 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 1 m/s² | Among large cities: above 63% | In Spain: 8 of 24 |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Cartagena on the live map
See the tropical nights around Cartagena on the live map
145 days © OpenStreetMap Cite or embed
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In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Cartagena, Spain: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/ESP/cartagena BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_ESP_cartagena_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Cartagena, Spain: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/ESP/cartagena},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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