Climate risk in Valencia
Valencia, Spain · 808K people in the urban area
What threatens Valencia most
- Drought
- High WRI Aqueduct
- Water stress
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
- River flood
- 0.56 m in a 100-year flood
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Spain
A 100-year river flood would stand 0.56 m deep in the centre of Valencia.
Madrid: Dry at the city centre point.
Valencia's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Valencia's climate comes closest to that of Tunis (Tunisia) today, though no large city matches it well.
Such a climate exists today, though not in any large city. Tunisia: the place on the map
+1.5°C
Mean temperature over the year
+2.3°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.1°C
Lowest in the coldest month
-8%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, the nearest is Tunis (Tunisia), and only in part.
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How close the match is: 2.1 σ to the climate of Tunis today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Valencia stands out
1%
Land burned in an average year
Madrid: 0%.
Higher than in 83% of the world's 630 large cities
240 mm
Sea level rise by 2050, moderate emissions
Barcelona: 260 mm.
Higher than in 77% of the world's 205 large cities
Hazards at Valencia
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Valencia | Among large cities | In Spain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 6 days | Among large cities: above 53% | In Spain: 9 of 24 |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 97 days | Among large cities: above 46% | In Spain: 6 of 24 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 39.6°C | Among large cities: above 74% | In Spain: 6 of 24 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +1.8°C | Among large cities: above 38% | In Spain: 9 of 24 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 5 days | Among large cities: above 33% | In Spain: 9 of 24 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | 0.56 m | Among large cities: above 93% | In Spain: 3 of 24 |
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Sea level rise by 2050, moderate emissions | 240 mm | Among large cities: above 77% | In Spain: 8 of 15 |
| Water stress | Medium-High (20-40%) | Among large cities: above 43% | In Spain: 14 of 24 |
| Drought risk | High | Among large cities: above 50% | In Spain: 1 of 22 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 1.32 m/s² | Among large cities: above 68% | In Spain: 5 of 24 |
| Land burned in an average year | 1% | Among large cities: above 83% | In Spain: 1 of 24 |
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Valencia on the live map
See the land burned around Valencia on the live map
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In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Valencia, Spain: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/ESP/valencia BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_ESP_valencia_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Valencia, Spain: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/ESP/valencia},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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