Climate risk in Guadalajara
Jalisco, Mexico · 4.2M people in the urban area
What threatens Guadalajara most
- Water stress
- High WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- High GSHAP
- Drought
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Mexico
An earthquake's shaking at Guadalajara can reach 2.7 m/s², as strong as a once-in-475-years event.
Mexico City: 1.13 m/s².
The highest of the 11 large cities in Mexico.
Guadalajara's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Guadalajara's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is Lubumbashi (Dem. Rep. Congo).
+1.4°C
Mean temperature over the year
+1.7°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1°C
Lowest in the coldest month
-2%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Guadalajara would stay nearest its own climate today.
Its own climate today is 4.2 σ away. How close the match is: 10.9 σ to the climate of Lubumbashi today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Guadalajara stands out
1%
Land burned in an average year
Mexico City: 0%.
Higher than in 83% of the world's 630 large cities
Hazards at Guadalajara
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Guadalajara | Among large cities | In Mexico |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 4 days | Among large cities: above 49% | In Mexico: 5 of 11 |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 6 days | Among large cities: above 20% | In Mexico: 6 of 11 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 36.1°C | Among large cities: above 49% | In Mexico: 5 of 11 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +1.9°C | Among large cities: above 44% | In Mexico: 6 of 11 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 7 days | Among large cities: above 40% | In Mexico: 3 of 11 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | High (40-80%) | Among large cities: above 56% | In Mexico: 7 of 11 |
| Drought risk | Medium-High | Among large cities: above 13% | In Mexico: 2 of 11 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 2.7 m/s² | Among large cities: above 87% | In Mexico: 1 of 11 |
| Land burned in an average year | 1% | Among large cities: above 83% | In Mexico: 2 of 11 |
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 39.13 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Guadalajara on the live map
See the land burned around Guadalajara on the live map
1% © OpenStreetMap Large cities near Guadalajara
- León · Mexico
- Toluca · Mexico
- Mexico City · Mexico
- Ciudad Nezahualcoyotl · Mexico
Large cities in Mexico
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Guadalajara, Mexico: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/MEX/guadalajara BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_MEX_guadalajara_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Guadalajara, Mexico: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/MEX/guadalajara},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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