Climate risk in Ciudad Juárez
Chihuahua, Mexico
Main risks in Ciudad Juárez
On heat, Ciudad Juárez ranks above at least 84% of the world's 626 large cities.
- Heat
- 62 days over 35 °C in 2025 [1]
- Higher than 84% of the world's large cities; 3rd of 11 large cities in Mexico.
- For comparison: Yangon 69 days, Hangzhou 58 days, Hyderabad 55 days.
62 days Natural Earth Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C
This week in Ciudad Juárez
This week's forecast risk around the city, by day and by hour, and the hazard events near it now. [2] [3]
This week's forecast for the city cannot be shown here right now.
Open the city on the mapThe Earth right now
The Earth's pulse reads the whole world, not this city, so it is the same on every city's page.
Earth's pulse, from 0 to 100. It rises with the number of people in the path of disasters now under way; 90 matches the 2004 tsunami.
Open the live mapWhere else Ciudad Juárez stands out
+2.4 °C
Warming by 2050, if emissions level off [4]
Higher than 78% of the world's large cities; 1st of 11 large cities in Mexico.
For comparison: Tehran +2.5 °C, Istanbul +2.3 °C, Chongqing +2.3 °C.
extremely high
Water stress [5]
The top grade of its scale, shared by 30% of the world's large cities.
Around the city on the map
Water stress
Natural Earth Ciudad Juárez's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, if emissions level off [6] [4]
By the 2050s, Ciudad Juárez's climate will be unlike any large city's today, its own included; of the other cities, Quetta (Pakistan) comes closest.
+1.7 °C
Mean temperature over the year
+1.9 °C
Average daily high, warmest month
+1.0 °C
Average nightly low, coldest month
-6%
Precipitation over the year
If emissions keep rising, Quetta (Pakistan) comes closest, though the match is only partial.
Climates are compared on seasonal temperature and rainfall alone, each difference weighed against the city's usual swings from year to year (the method of Mahony et al. 2017); heat waves, the heat of city streets and the rising sea are left out. All 3 estimates from the climate models, the middle one and the two ends of their range, point to Quetta. [7]
Everything else measured
From the highest among the world's 626 large cities to the lowest.
| Reading | Ciudad Juárez | Among 626 large cities | Rank in Mexico (1 = highest) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hottest day of 2025 [1] | 40.9 °C | higher than 84% of large cities | Rank in Mexico (1 = highest): 1 of 11 |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C [1] | 109 nights | higher than 51% of large cities | Rank in Mexico (1 = highest): 4 of 11 |
| Earthquake shaking on firm ground, 10% chance in 50 years [8] | light shaking, 0.03 g | higher than 27% of large cities | Rank in Mexico (1 = highest): 10 of 11 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 [1] | 1 day | higher than 7% of large cities | Rank in Mexico (1 = highest): 10 of 11 |
| Drought risk [5] | Low-Medium | the same grade as 11% of large cities; higher than 1%, lower than 88% | |
| River flood depth, 100-year event [9] | Dry at the centre; other districts can flood | like 85% of large cities | |
| Share of land sinking over 1 cm a year, within 15 km [10] | 0% | like 80% of large cities | |
| Land burned in an average year [11] | 0% | like 84% of large cities | |
| Tropical cyclone wind, once in 100 years [12] | No hurricane or typhoon reaches here | ||
| Share of the land around the centre (a 10 km square) that a 100-year flood from the sea puts under 0.5 m of water or more [9] | Far from the sea: no coastal flooding |
- Flood depth is given for one 1 km square at the city centre, in today's climate.
- Earthquake shaking is given for firm ground in g, the acceleration of gravity: around 0.1 g shaking is strong and can cause light damage, on the US Geological Survey's scale. The figure is the typical value over all the land within 15 km of the centre, not that of one point. Soft ground, such as an old lake bed or river silt, shakes harder.
- Land subsidence comes from a model of satellite radar measurements from 2013 to 2019 in 2 km squares, read over all the land within 15 km of the centre rather than at one point.
- Water stress is the share of the available water drawn every year. Drought risk is how often droughts come, against the area's own usual rain, and how many people and how much farmland they would reach. Both are graded on WRI's own scale.
- Water stress and drought risk have no rank in the country: they are steps of a scale, and many cities share one.
- Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here.
The nearest large cities
Distance from centre to centre.
- Mesa · United States · 530 km
- Phoenix · United States · 560 km
- Torreón · Mexico · 740 km
- San Antonio · United States · 810 km
Large cities in Mexico
Sources
- ERA5 Single Levels Daily Statistics: hot days, hottest day, nights, heavy rain
- Environment and Climate Change Canada: Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS): the week's forecast map
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS): wildfire near the city now
- NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6): warming, the 2050s comparison
- Aqueduct 4.0 Water Risk Framework: water stress, drought risk
- TerraClimate: the 2050s comparison
- Mahony, Cannon, Wang and Aitken (2017). A closer look at novel climates: new methods and insights at continental to landscape scales. Global Change Biology 23, 3934-3955: how climates are compared
- GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map: earthquake shaking
- Aqueduct Floods Hazard Maps: river flood depth, coastal floods
- Global Land Subsidence Mapping Reveals Widespread Loss of Aquifer Storage Capacity: sinking land
- Global Biomass Burning at 500 m (GFED500): burned land
- IRIS: the Imperial College Storm Model dataset: tropical cyclone wind
Cite or embed
Cite this page
In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, ECCC, NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, TerraClimate, GSHAP, HydroShare, GFED500, IRIS
APA
Criora. (2026). Ciudad Juárez, Mexico: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 4, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/MEX/ciudad-juarez BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_MEX_ciudad_juarez_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Ciudad Juárez, Mexico: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/MEX/ciudad-juarez},
urldate = {2026-11-04}
} The figures may be reused on the terms of their sources, which this page names.
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