Climate risk in Mexico City
Mexico City, Mexico · 19M people in the urban area
What threatens Mexico City most
- Water stress
- Extremely High WRI Aqueduct
- Drought
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- Moderate GSHAP
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Mexico
Shortage of water in Mexico City: Extremely High, on WRI's scale.
Guadalajara: High (40-80%).
Extremely High (>80%) © OpenStreetMap Mexico City's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Mexico City's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is León (Mexico).
+1.4°C
Mean temperature over the year
+1.7°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1°C
Lowest in the coldest month
-2%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, the nearest is León (Mexico), and only in part.
Its own climate today is 5.0 σ away. How close the match is: 5.2 σ to the climate of León today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 2 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Hazards at Mexico City
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Mexico City | Among large cities | In Mexico |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 0 days | ||
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 0 days | ||
| Hottest day of 2025 | 30.2°C | Among large cities: above 8% | In Mexico: 9 of 11 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +1.8°C | Among large cities: above 41% | In Mexico: 9 of 11 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 9 days | Among large cities: above 48% | In Mexico: 2 of 11 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Extremely High (>80%) | Among large cities: above 70% | In Mexico: 1 of 11 |
| Drought risk | Medium-High | Among large cities: above 13% | In Mexico: 2 of 11 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 1.13 m/s² | Among large cities: above 66% | In Mexico: 4 of 11 |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 29.61 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Mexico City on the live map
See the hottest days around Mexico City on the live map
30.2°C © OpenStreetMap Large cities near Mexico City
- Ciudad Nezahualcoyotl · Mexico
- Toluca · Mexico
- Puebla City · Mexico
- León · Mexico
Large cities in Mexico
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Mexico City, Mexico: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/MEX/mexico-city BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_MEX_mexico_city_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Mexico City, Mexico: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/MEX/mexico-city},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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