Criora

Spain

Region Europe Subregion Southern Europe Income High income: OECD ISO ESP

Spain sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Spain, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
41 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Medium
    47 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    34 / 100
    ▲ + 0.2 5y
  3. Social
    Low
    24 / 100
  4. Governance
    Medium
    51 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    Medium
    48 / 100
    ▲ + 0.6 5y
Climate futures

Spain: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Spain is projected to warm +3.4 °C, with annual rainfall changing -41 mm.

Temperature

+3.4 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+2.4 °C → +3.4 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1.9 °C → +2.3 °C

Hottest month +5.6 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

-41 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
-11 mm → -41 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
-12 mm → -25 mm

Driest month -3 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Spain: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.24 m → +0.76 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.22 m → +0.56 m

Water stress

88%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
86% → 88%
Current path SSP3-7.0
82% → 85%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 67% today.

River flooding

1.1%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
1.3% → 1.1%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
1.4% → 1.4%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.9% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Spain.

Where exactly?

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Spain most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
High
6.4 / 10
Peers

Spain in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Southern Europe
#7 of 14median 42
  1. 3MaltaLow 36
  2. 4AndorraLow 37
  3. 5SloveniaLow 38
  4. 6MontenegroLow 40
  5. 7SpainMedium 41
  6. 8GreeceMedium 43
  7. 9CroatiaMedium 43
  8. 10North MacedoniaMedium 43
  9. 11ItalyMedium 44
  10. 12AlbaniaMedium 45
region
Europe
#28 of 43median 38
  1. 24FranceLow 38
  2. 25SloveniaLow 38
  3. 26PolandLow 39
  4. 27MontenegroLow 40
  5. 28SpainMedium 41
  6. 29BelarusMedium 41
  7. 30HungaryMedium 42
  8. 31SlovakiaMedium 42
  9. 32GreeceMedium 43
  10. 33CroatiaMedium 43
income group
High income: OECD
#26 of 31median 37
  1. 22FranceLow 38
  2. 23SloveniaLow 38
  3. 24PolandLow 39
  4. 25United States of AmericaMedium 40
  5. 26SpainMedium 41
  6. 27JapanMedium 41
  7. 28HungaryMedium 42
  8. 29SlovakiaMedium 42
  9. 30GreeceMedium 43
  10. 31ItalyMedium 44

Put two countries head to head

Compare Spain against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Spain?
Spain sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 41 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Spain's risk?
Spain's highest pressures are governance (51, medium) and adaptation (48). Its strongest area is social (24).
How might Spain's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 29% of Spain's land shifts toward a drier, more arid zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 73 to 71 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Spain warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Spain is on track to warm by +3.4 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -41 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.3 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Spain's coast?
Coastal sea level along Spain is projected to rise by +0.76 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.56 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Spain?
The share of Spain under high water stress is projected to move from 67% today to 88% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Spain?
The share of Spain exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.9% today to 1.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Spain's risk data last updated?
Updated June 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.