Criora

China

Region Asia Subregion Eastern Asia Income Upper middle income ISO CHN

China sits mid-pack overall, with climate the main pressure, easing recently.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is China, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
43 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    High
    69 / 100
  2. Nature
    Medium
    50 / 100
    ▼ -0.3 5y
  3. Social
    Very low
    15 / 100
  4. Governance
    Low
    37 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    Medium
    44 / 100
    ▼ -5.4 5y
Climate futures

China: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, China is projected to warm +4.1 °C, with annual rainfall changing +57 mm.

Temperature

+4.1 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+2.9 °C → +4.1 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+2.4 °C → +2.8 °C

Hottest month +4.1 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+57 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+36 mm → +57 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+31 mm → +40 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

China: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.23 m → +0.80 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.20 m → +0.56 m

Water stress

31%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
31% → 31%
Current path SSP3-7.0
33% → 33%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 28% today.

River flooding

2.7%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
2.3% → 2.7%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
2% → 2.4%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 2.1% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside China.

Where exactly?

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten China most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Critical
9.3 / 10
DRR capacity
Low
3.0 / 10
Peers

China in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Eastern Asia
#3 of 5median 43
  1. 1South KoreaLow 37
  2. 2JapanMedium 41
  3. 3ChinaMedium 43
  4. 4MongoliaMedium 45
  5. 5North KoreaMedium 54
region
Asia
#16 of 48median 47
  1. 12JapanMedium 41
  2. 13BhutanMedium 41
  3. 14OmanMedium 41
  4. 15GeorgiaMedium 42
  5. 16ChinaMedium 43
  6. 17JordanMedium 44
  7. 18ArmeniaMedium 44
  8. 19KuwaitMedium 44
  9. 20KazakhstanMedium 45
  10. 21MalaysiaMedium 45
income group
Upper middle income
#20 of 53median 44
  1. 16BelarusMedium 41
  2. 17CubaMedium 43
  3. 18TuvaluMedium 43
  4. 19North MacedoniaMedium 43
  5. 20ChinaMedium 43
  6. 21BulgariaMedium 43
  7. 22Costa RicaMedium 43
  8. 23ChileMedium 44
  9. 24JordanMedium 44
  10. 25PanamaMedium 44

Put two countries head to head

Compare China against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is China?
China sits mid-pack overall, with climate the main pressure, easing recently. Its overall risk score is 43 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives China's risk?
China's highest pressures are climate (69, high) and nature (50). Its strongest area is social (15).
How might China's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 22% of China's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 65 to 69 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will China warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), China is on track to warm by +4.1 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +57 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.8 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along China's coast?
Coastal sea level along China is projected to rise by +0.80 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.56 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in China?
The share of China under high water stress is projected to move from 28% today to 31% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in China?
The share of China exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 2.1% today to 2.7% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was China's risk data last updated?
Updated June 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.